Prediction Analysis: 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München
1. FC Köln vs Bayern München prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2026-01-14
19:30
1. FC Köln
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
74%
Confidence
High
Score
1-2
Bayern München
Away
Prediction Summary
1
19%
X
18%
2
62%
Over 2.5
74%
BTTS Yes
68%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
1. FC Köln (Home)
Goals scored / match1.76
Goals conceded / match1.76
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate88%
Bayern München (Away)
Goals scored / match3.18
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate76%
BTTS rate59%
Team Form last 5 matches
1. FC Köln
LLDLD
Bayern München
WWDWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
94%
+0.5
100%
41%
+1.5
88%
29%
+2.5
76%
12%
+3.5
35%
0%
+4.5
18%
88%
BTTS
59%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 74%. Model confidence is High.
1. FC Köln averages 1.76 goals scored at home, while Bayern München averages 3.18 goals scored away.
Model Strength
74%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
19%
Draw
18%
Away Win
62%
Over 2.5
74%
BTTS Yes
68%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
1. FC Köln(A)
1 - 5
Bayern München
Away
Jan 2026
1. FC Köln
1 - 3
Bayern München
Away
Oct 2025
1. FC Köln
1 - 4
Bayern München
Away
Apr 2024
1. FC Köln(A)
0 - 2
Bayern München
Away
Nov 2023
1. FC Köln
0 - 1
Bayern München
Away
In the last 5 meetings, 1. FC Köln won 0, drew 0 and lost 5.
Current Streaks
1. FC Köln — unbeaten run (home)0
1. FC Köln — scoring streak (home)10
Bayern München — winless run (away)0
Bayern München — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
1. FC Köln Win (1)19%
Draw (X)18%
Bayern München Win (2)62%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
94%
+0.5
100%
41%
+1.5
88%
29%
+2.5
76%
12%
+3.5
35%
0%
+4.5
18%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
6%
-0.5
0%
59%
-1.5
12%
71%
-2.5
24%
88%
-3.5
65%
100%
-4.5
82%
1. FC Köln vs Bayern München — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
1. FC Köln — scored (home)1.76
1. FC Köln — conceded (home)1.76
Bayern München — scored (away)3.18
Bayern München — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals3.86
Both Teams To Score
Yes68%
No32%
Rate per Team
1. FC Köln — BTTS matches (home)88%
Bayern München — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)73.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.562%
Under 7.538%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.541%
Under 9.559%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.30
Per-Team Corners own matches
1. FC Köln (home)
Corners for4.8
Corners against4.7
Bayern München (away)
Corners for5.1
Corners against3.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
1. FC Köln
13
7
7
10
10
Bayern München
14
8
18
9
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.588%
Under 0.512%
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4
Yellow Cards per Team
1. FC Köln (home)
For2.1
Bayern München (away)
For2.3
Shots per Game
1. FC Köln — total shots (home)15.1
Bayern München — total shots (away)16.8
Shots on Target
1. FC Köln — on target (home)5.5
Bayern München — on target (away)8.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
1. FC Köln
Inside the box9.41
Outside the box4
Bayern München
Inside the box12.97
Outside the box6.21
Player Shots 1. FC Köln
S. El Mala
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target15%
J. Kamiński
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target21%
R. Ache
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Waldschmidt
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target13%
M. Bülter
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target16%
Player Shots Bayern München
H. Kane
Shots on Target/Game2.2
+0.5 On Target87%
+1.5 On Target55%
M. Olise
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target47%
L. Díaz
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target31%
N. Jackson
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target13%
S. Gnabry
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target19%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
1. FC Köln xG (home)1.53
Bayern München xG (away)2.96
Average Possession
47.09%
Possession
67.44%
Team Comparison 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München
80.12%
Pass accuracy
89.88%
408.32
Passes per match
700.91
0.08
Goals prevented
-0.3
8.32
Fouls committed
8.79
2.79
Goalkeeper saves
2.03
1.91
Offsides
2.44
14.21
Tackles per match
12.79
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
1. FC Köln vs Bayern München prediction analysis
Review 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights