Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian

Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premiership 2026-08-01 16:30
Aberdeen
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Heart Of Midlothian
Away

Prediction Summary

1
36%
X
26%
2
38%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Aberdeen (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate47%

Heart Of Midlothian (Away)

Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Aberdeen
LLWDW
Heart Of Midlothian
LWDWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 79%
37% +1.5 63%
16% +2.5 16%
11% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Medium.

Aberdeen averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Heart Of Midlothian averages 1.58 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
36%
Draw
26%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
56%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Aberdeen(A) 0 - 1 Heart Of Midlothian Away
Nov 2025 Aberdeen 1 - 0 Heart Of Midlothian Home
Aug 2025 Aberdeen(A) 0 - 2 Heart Of Midlothian Away
Apr 2025 Aberdeen(A) 2 - 1 Heart Of Midlothian Home
Jan 2025 Aberdeen 0 - 0 Heart Of Midlothian Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Aberdeen won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Aberdeen — unbeaten run (home)0
Aberdeen — scoring streak (home)0
Heart Of Midlothian — winless run (away)2
Heart Of Midlothian — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Aberdeen Win (1)36%
Draw (X)26%
Heart Of Midlothian Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 79%
37% +1.5 63%
16% +2.5 16%
11% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 21%
63% -1.5 37%
84% -2.5 84%
89% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Aberdeen — scored (home)1.47
Aberdeen — conceded (home)1.21
Heart Of Midlothian — scored (away)1.58
Heart Of Midlothian — conceded (away)1.21
Model expected combined goals2.74

Both Teams To Score

Yes56%
No44%

Rate per Team

Aberdeen — BTTS matches (home)47%
Heart Of Midlothian — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.552%
Under 9.548%
Over 10.541%
Under 10.559%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Aberdeen (home)

Corners for5.8
Corners against4.7

Heart Of Midlothian (away)

Corners for5.7
Corners against4.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Aberdeen
11 9 6 7 9
Heart Of Midlothian
11 8 8 10 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Aberdeen (home)

For2.0

Heart Of Midlothian (away)

For2.2

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.570%
Under 19.530%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.543%
Under 25.557%
Expected total shots24.95

Aberdeen

Shots Over 9.570%
Shots Over 11.554%
Shots Over 13.539%
Expected shots12.56
On Target Over 3.559%
On Target Over 4.542%
On Target Over 5.528%
Expected on target4.32

Heart Of Midlothian

Shots Over 9.569%
Shots Over 11.553%
Shots Over 13.538%
Expected shots12.39
On Target Over 3.557%
On Target Over 4.540%
On Target Over 5.526%
Expected on target4.16

Shots per Game

Aberdeen — total shots (home)12.5
Heart Of Midlothian — total shots (away)13.9

Shots on Target

Aberdeen — on target (home)4.4
Heart Of Midlothian — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Aberdeen

Inside the box7.42
Outside the box3.87

Heart Of Midlothian

Inside the box9.74
Outside the box4.58

Player Shots Aberdeen

J. Karlsson
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Aouchiche
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target10%
K. Nisbet
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target17%
D. Polvara
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target6%
S. Armstrong
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Heart Of Midlothian

L. Shankland
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target48%
Cláudio Braga
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
A. Kyziridis
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target13%
P. Kabore
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target12%
Ageu
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Aberdeen xG (home)1.06
Heart Of Midlothian xG (away)1.46

Average Possession

48.05% Possession 53.39%

Team Comparison Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian

76.18% Pass accuracy 75.55%
392.42 Passes per match 414.24
-0.41 Goals prevented -0.46
14.29 Fouls committed 10.92
3.18 Goalkeeper saves 2
1.81 Offsides 1.31
15.63 Tackles per match 16.87

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction analysis

Review Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premiership.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premiership
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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