Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Aberdeen vs Livingston

Aberdeen vs Livingston prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premiership 2025-09-13 14:00
Aberdeen
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
51%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Livingston
Away

Prediction Summary

1
54%
X
24%
2
22%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Aberdeen (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate47%

Livingston (Away)

Goals scored / match0.8
Goals conceded / match1.95
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate45%

Team Form last 5 matches

Aberdeen
LLWDW
Livingston
LDLDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 50%
37% +1.5 30%
16% +2.5 0%
11% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 45%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 51%. Model confidence is Low.

Aberdeen averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Livingston averages 0.8 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
54%
Draw
24%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
52%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Aberdeen(A) 2 - 2 Livingston Draw
Jan 2026 Aberdeen 6 - 2 Livingston Home
Nov 2025 Aberdeen(A) 1 - 0 Livingston Home
Sep 2025 Aberdeen 0 - 0 Livingston Draw
May 2024 Aberdeen 5 - 1 Livingston Home

In the last 5 meetings, Aberdeen won 3, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Aberdeen — unbeaten run (home)0
Aberdeen — scoring streak (home)0
Livingston — winless run (away)2
Livingston — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Aberdeen Win (1)54%
Draw (X)24%
Livingston Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 50%
37% +1.5 30%
16% +2.5 0%
11% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 50%
63% -1.5 70%
84% -2.5 100%
89% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Aberdeen vs Livingston — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Aberdeen — scored (home)1.47
Aberdeen — conceded (home)1.21
Livingston — scored (away)0.8
Livingston — conceded (away)1.95
Model expected combined goals2.72

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%
No48%

Rate per Team

Aberdeen — BTTS matches (home)47%
Livingston — BTTS matches (away)45%
Combined (simple average)46%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.592%
Under 6.58%
Over 7.580%
Under 7.520%
Over 8.577%
Under 8.523%
Over 9.567%
Under 9.533%
Over 10.557%
Under 10.543%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Aberdeen (home)

Corners for5.8
Corners against4.7

Livingston (away)

Corners for4.1
Corners against6.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Aberdeen
11 9 6 7 9
Livingston
15 9 12 15 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Aberdeen (home)

For2.0

Livingston (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Aberdeen — total shots (home)12.5
Livingston — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Aberdeen — on target (home)4.4
Livingston — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Aberdeen

Inside the box7.42
Outside the box3.87

Livingston

Inside the box6.29
Outside the box3.53

Player Shots Aberdeen

J. Karlsson
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Aouchiche
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target10%
K. Nisbet
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target17%
D. Polvara
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target6%
S. Armstrong
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Livingston

T. Yengi
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target11%
S. May
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target6%
R. Muirhead
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target9%
C. McLennan
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Smith
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Aberdeen xG (home)1.06
Livingston xG (away)1.09

Average Possession

48.05% Possession 44.97%

Team Comparison Aberdeen vs Livingston

76.18% Pass accuracy 73.13%
392.42 Passes per match 372.84
-0.41 Goals prevented 0.11
14.29 Fouls committed 12.89
3.18 Goalkeeper saves 3.05
1.81 Offsides 1.49
15.63 Tackles per match 15.92

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Aberdeen vs Livingston prediction analysis

Review Aberdeen vs Livingston with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premiership.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premiership
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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