What markets are included in the AC Milan vs Fiorentina prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the AC Milan vs Fiorentina prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: AC Milan vs Fiorentina

AC Milan vs Fiorentina prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-04-05 18:45

AC Milan

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

43%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Fiorentina

Away

Prediction Summary

41%

27%

32%

Under 2.5

57%

BTTS No

51%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

AC Milan (Home)

Goals scored / match1.58

Goals conceded / match0.84

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate47%

Fiorentina (Away)

Goals scored / match1.47

Goals conceded / match1.21

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

AC Milan

WLWWW

Fiorentina

WWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 79%

47% +1.5 42%

26% +2.5 11%

5% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 5%

47% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.

AC Milan averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Fiorentina averages 1.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength

57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

41%

Draw

27%

Away Win

32%

Over 2.5

43%

BTTS Yes

49%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 AC Milan(A) 1 - 1 Fiorentina Draw

Oct 2025 AC Milan 2 - 1 Fiorentina Home

Apr 2025 AC Milan 2 - 2 Fiorentina Draw

Oct 2024 AC Milan(A) 1 - 2 Fiorentina Away

Mar 2024 AC Milan(A) 2 - 1 Fiorentina Home

In the last 5 meetings, AC Milan won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

AC Milan — unbeaten run (home)2

AC Milan — scoring streak (home)2

Fiorentina — winless run (away)0

Fiorentina — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

AC Milan Win (1)41%

Draw (X)27%

Fiorentina Win (2)32%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 79%

47% +1.5 42%

26% +2.5 11%

5% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 21%

53% -1.5 58%

74% -2.5 89%

95% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 95%

AC Milan vs Fiorentina — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

AC Milan — scored (home)1.58

AC Milan — conceded (home)0.84

Fiorentina — scored (away)1.47

Fiorentina — conceded (away)1.21

Model expected combined goals2.42

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%

No51%

Rate per Team

AC Milan — BTTS matches (home)47%

Fiorentina — BTTS matches (away)58%

Combined (simple average)52.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%

Under 4.58%

Over 5.587%

Under 5.513%

Over 6.574%

Under 6.526%

Over 7.564%

Under 7.536%

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.547%

Under 9.553%

Over 10.537%

Under 10.563%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

AC Milan (home)

Corners for6.0

Corners against4.3

Fiorentina (away)

Corners for3.7

Corners against4.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

AC Milan

9 15 7 6 10

Fiorentina

7 11 6 6 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.590%

Under 1.510%

Over 2.582%

Under 2.518%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

AC Milan (home)

For1.7

Fiorentina (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

AC Milan — total shots (home)15.6

Fiorentina — total shots (away)11.9

Shots on Target

AC Milan — on target (home)4.9

Fiorentina — on target (away)4.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

AC Milan

Inside the box9.55

Outside the box5.26

Fiorentina

Inside the box7.41

Outside the box4.38

Player Shots AC Milan

I. Bennacer

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target17%

+1.5 On Target17%

Emerson Royal

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target6%

+1.5 On Target6%

João Félix

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

T. Reijnders

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target51%

+1.5 On Target16%

T. Abraham

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target32%

+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Fiorentina

M. Kean

Shots on Target/Game2.2

+0.5 On Target72%

+1.5 On Target38%

C. Biraghi

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target13%

+1.5 On Target13%

L. Ranieri

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target8%

+1.5 On Target6%

R. Mandragora

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target10%

A. Guðmundsson

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target17%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

AC Milan xG (home)1.67

Fiorentina xG (away)1.31

Average Possession

54.08% Possession 51.11%

Team Comparison AC Milan vs Fiorentina

87.21% Pass accuracy 82.78%

465.32 Passes per match 427.43

-0.26 Goals prevented 0.04

10.92 Fouls committed 11.59

2.71 Goalkeeper saves 2.89

1.67 Offsides 2.3

14.53 Tackles per match 13.95

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

AC Milan vs Fiorentina prediction analysis

Review AC Milan vs Fiorentina with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights