What markets are included in the AC Milan vs Fiorentina prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the AC Milan vs Fiorentina prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: AC Milan vs Fiorentina

AC Milan vs Fiorentina prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions

Serie A 2025-10-19 18:45

AC Milan

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

19%

Confidence

High

Score

0-0

Fiorentina

Away

Prediction Summary

37%

27%

Under 2.5

81%

BTTS No

72%

Confidence

High

Market Evidence

AC Milan (Home)

Goals scored / match1.32

Goals conceded / match1.11

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate53%

Fiorentina (Away)

Goals scored / match1.05

Goals conceded / match1.53

Over 2.5 rate5%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

AC Milan

LWLLD

Fiorentina

DWDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 63%

37% +1.5 32%

11% +2.5 5%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 19%. Model confidence is High.

AC Milan averages 1.32 goals scored at home, while Fiorentina averages 1.05 goals scored away.

Model Strength

81%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

37%

Draw

37%

Away Win

27%

Over 2.5

19%

BTTS Yes

28%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 AC Milan(A) 1 - 1 Fiorentina Draw

Oct 2025 AC Milan 2 - 1 Fiorentina Home

Apr 2025 AC Milan 2 - 2 Fiorentina Draw

Oct 2024 AC Milan(A) 1 - 2 Fiorentina Away

Mar 2024 AC Milan(A) 2 - 1 Fiorentina Home

In the last 5 meetings, AC Milan won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

AC Milan — unbeaten run (home)0

AC Milan — scoring streak (home)2

Fiorentina — winless run (away)0

Fiorentina — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

AC Milan Win (1)37%

Draw (X)37%

Fiorentina Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 63%

37% +1.5 32%

11% +2.5 5%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 37%

63% -1.5 68%

89% -2.5 95%

100% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 100%

AC Milan vs Fiorentina — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

AC Milan — scored (home)1.32

AC Milan — conceded (home)1.11

Fiorentina — scored (away)1.05

Fiorentina — conceded (away)1.53

Model expected combined goals1.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes28%

No72%

Rate per Team

AC Milan — BTTS matches (home)53%

Fiorentina — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%

Under 4.510%

Over 5.584%

Under 5.516%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.569%

Under 7.531%

Over 8.550%

Under 8.550%

Over 9.545%

Under 9.555%

Over 10.519%

Under 10.581%

Expected total corners (blended average)8.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

AC Milan (home)

Corners for4.9

Corners against3.7

Fiorentina (away)

Corners for3.4

Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

AC Milan

4 5 4 8 10

Fiorentina

11 9 7 8 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.589%

Under 1.511%

Over 2.582%

Under 2.518%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3

Yellow Cards per Team

AC Milan (home)

For1.9

Fiorentina (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

AC Milan — total shots (home)16.1

Fiorentina — total shots (away)10.1

Shots on Target

AC Milan — on target (home)4.9

Fiorentina — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

AC Milan

Inside the box9.16

Outside the box4.08

Fiorentina

Inside the box8.05

Outside the box4.82

Player Shots AC Milan

C. Pulišić

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target17%

Rafael Leão

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target24%

S. Giménez

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target13%

Y. Fofana

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target0%

C. Nkunku

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Fiorentina

M. Kean

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target27%

R. Mandragora

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target3%

R. Piccoli

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target9%

A. Guðmundsson

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target9%

F. Parisi

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

AC Milan xG (home)1.59

Fiorentina xG (away)1.4

Average Possession

51.84% Possession 50.97%

Team Comparison AC Milan vs Fiorentina

86.74% Pass accuracy 83.89%

483.74 Passes per match 423.61

0.2 Goals prevented 0.06

10.11 Fouls committed 12.5

2.95 Goalkeeper saves 3.34

1.92 Offsides 1.94

14.5 Tackles per match 12.26

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

AC Milan vs Fiorentina prediction analysis

Review AC Milan vs Fiorentina with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights