Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: AC Milan vs Girona

AC Milan vs Girona prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2025-01-22 20:00
AC Milan
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
54%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Girona
Away

Prediction Summary

1
65%
X
21%
2
15%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

AC Milan (Home)

Goals scored / match1.6
Goals conceded / match1.2
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate80%

Girona (Away)

Goals scored / match0
Goals conceded / match1.75
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%

Team Form last 5 matches

AC Milan
DLLWW
Girona
LLLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 0%
40% +1.5 0%
20% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
80% BTTS 0%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.

AC Milan averages 1.6 goals scored at home, while Girona averages 0 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
65%
Draw
21%
Away Win
15%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 1

Jan 2025 AC Milan 1 - 0 Girona Home

In the last 1 meetings, AC Milan won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

AC Milan — unbeaten run (home)4
AC Milan — scoring streak (home)5
Girona — winless run (away)4
Girona — clean sheets (away, last 4)0 of 4

1X2 Probability model

AC Milan Win (1)65%
Draw (X)21%
Girona Win (2)15%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 0%
40% +1.5 0%
20% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 100%
60% -1.5 100%
80% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

AC Milan vs Girona — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

AC Milan — scored (home)1.6
AC Milan — conceded (home)1.2
Girona — scored (away)0
Girona — conceded (away)1.75
Model expected combined goals2.83

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

AC Milan — BTTS matches (home)80%
Girona — BTTS matches (away)0%
Combined (simple average)40%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.588%
Under 6.512%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.535%
Under 9.565%
Over 10.513%
Under 10.587%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

AC Milan (home)

Corners for4.6
Corners against3.6

Girona (away)

Corners for4.3
Corners against4.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

AC Milan
10 9 9 11 7
Girona
10 11 13 9 16

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

AC Milan (home)

For3.0

Girona (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

AC Milan — total shots (home)15.6
Girona — total shots (away)7.5

Shots on Target

AC Milan — on target (home)5.8
Girona — on target (away)2.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

AC Milan

Inside the box8.9
Outside the box6

Girona

Inside the box6.63
Outside the box3.25

Player Shots AC Milan

F. Camarda
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
Rafael Leão
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target30%
C. Pulišić
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target78%
+1.5 On Target33%
T. Abraham
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
T. Reijnders
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target20%

Player Shots Girona

B. Miovski
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target25%
Miguel Gutiérrez
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Y. Herrera
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%
A. Danjuma
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target0%
C. Stuani
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

AC Milan xG (home)1.37
Girona xG (away)1.22

Average Possession

53.1% Possession 51%

Team Comparison AC Milan vs Girona

87.5% Pass accuracy 85.63%
484.8 Passes per match 466.38
-0.11 Goals prevented 0.52
10.6 Fouls committed 14.5
4.1 Goalkeeper saves 4.5
1.4 Offsides 1.5
14.9 Tackles per match 16.63

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

AC Milan vs Girona prediction analysis

Review AC Milan vs Girona with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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