Prediction Analysis: AC Milan vs Lecce
AC Milan vs Lecce prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-09-20
16:30
AC Milan
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
40%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Lecce
Away
Prediction Summary
1
46%
X
28%
2
26%
+2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS
45%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
AC Milan (Home)
Goals scored / match1.32
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate53%
Lecce (Away)
Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate37%
Team Form last 5 matches
AC Milan
LWLLD
Lecce
WWLWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
84%
+0.5
53%
37%
+1.5
21%
11%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
53%
BTTS
37%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.
AC Milan averages 1.32 goals scored at home, while Lecce averages 0.79 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
46%
Draw
28%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Yes
45%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jan 2026
AC Milan
1 - 0
Lecce
Home
Aug 2025
AC Milan(A)
2 - 0
Lecce
Home
Mar 2025
AC Milan(A)
3 - 2
Lecce
Home
Sep 2024
AC Milan
3 - 0
Lecce
Home
Apr 2024
AC Milan
3 - 0
Lecce
Home
In the last 5 meetings, AC Milan won 5, drew 0 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
AC Milan — unbeaten run (home)0
AC Milan — scoring streak (home)2
Lecce — winless run (away)0
Lecce — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
AC Milan Win (1)46%
Draw (X)28%
Lecce Win (2)26%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
84%
+0.5
53%
37%
+1.5
21%
11%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
16%
-0.5
47%
63%
-1.5
79%
89%
-2.5
95%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
AC Milan vs Lecce — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
AC Milan — scored (home)1.32
AC Milan — conceded (home)1.11
Lecce — scored (away)0.79
Lecce — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals2.29
Both Teams To Score
Yes45%
No55%
Rate per Team
AC Milan — BTTS matches (home)53%
Lecce — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)45%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
AC Milan (home)
Corners for4.9
Corners against3.7
Lecce (away)
Corners for4.4
Corners against6.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
AC Milan
4
5
4
8
10
Lecce
6
7
8
10
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7
Yellow Cards per Team
AC Milan (home)
For1.9
Lecce (away)
For2.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.573%
Under 19.527%
Over 22.560%
Under 22.540%
Over 25.546%
Under 25.554%
Expected total shots25.52
AC Milan
Shots Over 9.583%
Shots Over 11.570%
Shots Over 13.556%
Expected shots14.95
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.551%
On Target Over 5.536%
Expected on target4.87
Lecce
Shots Over 9.556%
Shots Over 11.538%
Shots Over 13.524%
Expected shots10.57
On Target Over 3.542%
On Target Over 4.526%
On Target Over 5.514%
Expected on target3.36
Shots per Game
AC Milan — total shots (home)16.1
Lecce — total shots (away)9.0
Shots on Target
AC Milan — on target (home)4.9
Lecce — on target (away)2.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
AC Milan
Inside the box9.16
Outside the box4.08
Lecce
Inside the box5.68
Outside the box4.13
Player Shots AC Milan
C. Pulišić
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target17%
Rafael Leão
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target24%
S. Giménez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target13%
Y. Fofana
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target0%
C. Nkunku
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target9%
Player Shots Lecce
W. Cheddira
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
L. Banda
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target13%
M. Berisha
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
M. Kaba
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target7%
N. Štulić
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Milan xG (home)1.59
Lecce xG (away)0.82
Average Possession
51.84%
Possession
41.61%
Team Comparison AC Milan vs Lecce
86.74%
Pass accuracy
74.34%
483.74
Passes per match
321.13
0.2
Goals prevented
0.17
10.11
Fouls committed
12.63
2.95
Goalkeeper saves
2.89
1.92
Offsides
1.35
14.5
Tackles per match
17.68
League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
AC Milan vs Lecce prediction analysis
Review AC Milan vs Lecce with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights