Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: AC Milan vs Pisa

AC Milan vs Pisa prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-10-24 18:45
AC Milan
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-0
Pisa
Away

Prediction Summary

1
62%
X
20%
2
17%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

AC Milan (Home)

Goals scored / match1.32
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate53%

Pisa (Away)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match2.37
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

AC Milan
LWLLD
Pisa
LLLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 53%
37% +1.5 37%
11% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
53% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.

AC Milan averages 1.32 goals scored at home, while Pisa averages 0.89 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
62%
Draw
20%
Away Win
17%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
55%

Head-to-Head last 2

Feb 2026 AC Milan(A) 2 - 1 Pisa Home
Oct 2025 AC Milan 2 - 2 Pisa Draw

In the last 2 meetings, AC Milan won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

AC Milan — unbeaten run (home)0
AC Milan — scoring streak (home)2
Pisa — winless run (away)19
Pisa — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

AC Milan Win (1)62%
Draw (X)20%
Pisa Win (2)17%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 53%
37% +1.5 37%
11% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 47%
63% -1.5 63%
89% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

AC Milan vs Pisa — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

AC Milan — scored (home)1.32
AC Milan — conceded (home)1.11
Pisa — scored (away)0.89
Pisa — conceded (away)2.37
Model expected combined goals3.08

Both Teams To Score

Yes55%
No45%

Rate per Team

AC Milan — BTTS matches (home)53%
Pisa — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.587%
Under 4.513%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.566%
Under 7.534%
Over 8.542%
Under 8.558%
Over 9.540%
Under 9.560%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

AC Milan (home)

Corners for4.9
Corners against3.7

Pisa (away)

Corners for3.3
Corners against5.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

AC Milan
4 5 4 8 10
Pisa
11 7 8 7 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8

Yellow Cards per Team

AC Milan (home)

For1.9

Pisa (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

AC Milan — total shots (home)16.1
Pisa — total shots (away)8.9

Shots on Target

AC Milan — on target (home)4.9
Pisa — on target (away)2.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

AC Milan

Inside the box9.16
Outside the box4.08

Pisa

Inside the box7.11
Outside the box2.47

Player Shots AC Milan

C. Pulišić
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target17%
Rafael Leão
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target24%
S. Giménez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target13%
Y. Fofana
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target0%
C. Nkunku
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Pisa

S. Moreo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target14%
M'Bala Nzola
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target6%
R. Durosinmi
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Tramoni
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target7%
F. Stojilković
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

AC Milan xG (home)1.59
Pisa xG (away)1.05

Average Possession

51.84% Possession 40.21%

Team Comparison AC Milan vs Pisa

86.74% Pass accuracy 76.16%
483.74 Passes per match 326.92
0.2 Goals prevented 0.06
10.11 Fouls committed 13.18
2.95 Goalkeeper saves 2.84
1.92 Offsides 1.7
14.5 Tackles per match 16.42

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

AC Milan vs Pisa prediction analysis

Review AC Milan vs Pisa with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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