Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: AC Milan vs Torino

AC Milan vs Torino prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2024-08-17 18:45
AC Milan
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
Torino
Away

Prediction Summary

1
49%
X
26%
2
25%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

AC Milan (Home)

Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match0.84
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate47%

Torino (Away)

Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.42
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

AC Milan
WLWWW
Torino
LLLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 68%
47% +1.5 42%
26% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.

AC Milan averages 1.58 goals scored at home, while Torino averages 1.16 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
49%
Draw
26%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 AC Milan 3 - 2 Torino Home
Dec 2025 AC Milan(A) 3 - 2 Torino Home
Feb 2025 AC Milan(A) 1 - 2 Torino Away
Aug 2024 AC Milan 2 - 2 Torino Draw
May 2024 AC Milan(A) 1 - 3 Torino Away

In the last 5 meetings, AC Milan won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

AC Milan — unbeaten run (home)2
AC Milan — scoring streak (home)2
Torino — winless run (away)5
Torino — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

AC Milan Win (1)49%
Draw (X)26%
Torino Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 68%
47% +1.5 42%
26% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 32%
53% -1.5 58%
74% -2.5 95%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

AC Milan vs Torino — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

AC Milan — scored (home)1.58
AC Milan — conceded (home)0.84
Torino — scored (away)1.16
Torino — conceded (away)1.42
Model expected combined goals2.5

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

AC Milan — BTTS matches (home)47%
Torino — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.561%
Under 9.539%
Over 10.548%
Under 10.552%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

AC Milan (home)

Corners for6.0
Corners against4.3

Torino (away)

Corners for3.7
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

AC Milan
9 15 7 6 10
Torino
7 6 12 7 3

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.3

Yellow Cards per Team

AC Milan (home)

For1.7

Torino (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

AC Milan — total shots (home)15.6
Torino — total shots (away)9.4

Shots on Target

AC Milan — on target (home)4.9
Torino — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

AC Milan

Inside the box9.55
Outside the box5.26

Torino

Inside the box6.26
Outside the box3.89

Player Shots AC Milan

I. Bennacer
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target17%
Emerson Royal
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target6%
João Félix
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target13%
T. Reijnders
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target16%
T. Abraham
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Torino

C. Casadei
Shots on Target/Game2.3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target13%
D. Zapata
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target86%
+1.5 On Target29%
C. Adams
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target25%
E. Elmas
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target15%
N. Vlašić
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

AC Milan xG (home)1.67
Torino xG (away)0.93

Average Possession

54.08% Possession 47.45%

Team Comparison AC Milan vs Torino

87.21% Pass accuracy 81.16%
465.32 Passes per match 405.37
-0.26 Goals prevented 0.05
10.92 Fouls committed 12.71
2.71 Goalkeeper saves 3.86
1.67 Offsides 1.54
14.53 Tackles per match 12.32

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

AC Milan vs Torino prediction analysis

Review AC Milan vs Torino with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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