Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: AEK Larnaca vs Ethnikos Achna

AEK Larnaca vs Ethnikos Achna prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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1. Division 2025-12-06 17:00
AEK Larnaca
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
71%
Confidence
High
Score
2-1
Ethnikos Achna
Away

Prediction Summary

1
66%
X
18%
2
17%
Over 2.5
71%
BTTS Yes
64%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

AEK Larnaca (Home)

Goals scored / match1.83
Goals conceded / match0.89
Over 2.5 rate22%
BTTS rate44%

Ethnikos Achna (Away)

Goals scored / match0.88
Goals conceded / match2.12
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

AEK Larnaca
WDDWL
Ethnikos Achna
LWLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 59%
56% +1.5 24%
22% +2.5 6%
11% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%
44% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 71%. Model confidence is High.

AEK Larnaca averages 1.83 goals scored at home, while Ethnikos Achna averages 0.88 goals scored away.

Model Strength
71%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
66%
Draw
18%
Away Win
17%
Over 2.5
71%
BTTS Yes
64%

Head-to-Head last 2

Mar 2026 AEK Larnaca(A) 2 - 0 Ethnikos Achna Home
Dec 2025 AEK Larnaca 2 - 1 Ethnikos Achna Home

In the last 2 meetings, AEK Larnaca won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

AEK Larnaca — unbeaten run (home)3
AEK Larnaca — scoring streak (home)3
Ethnikos Achna — winless run (away)0
Ethnikos Achna — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

AEK Larnaca Win (1)66%
Draw (X)18%
Ethnikos Achna Win (2)17%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 59%
56% +1.5 24%
22% +2.5 6%
11% +3.5 0%
6% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 41%
44% -1.5 76%
78% -2.5 94%
89% -3.5 100%
94% -4.5 100%

AEK Larnaca vs Ethnikos Achna — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

AEK Larnaca — scored (home)1.83
AEK Larnaca — conceded (home)0.89
Ethnikos Achna — scored (away)0.88
Ethnikos Achna — conceded (away)2.12
Model expected combined goals3.7

Both Teams To Score

Yes64%
No36%

Rate per Team

AEK Larnaca — BTTS matches (home)44%
Ethnikos Achna — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)48.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.584%
Under 4.516%
Over 5.584%
Under 5.516%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.554%
Under 7.546%
Over 8.554%
Under 8.546%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.517%
Under 10.583%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

AEK Larnaca (home)

Corners for5.6
Corners against2.4

Ethnikos Achna (away)

Corners for3.0
Corners against6.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

AEK Larnaca
17 12 15 6 6
Ethnikos Achna
15 9 10 2 4

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.5100%
Under 2.50%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.6

Yellow Cards per Team

AEK Larnaca (home)

For2.0

Ethnikos Achna (away)

For3.3

Shots per Game

AEK Larnaca — total shots (home)13.4
Ethnikos Achna — total shots (away)6.0

Shots on Target

AEK Larnaca — on target (home)4.6
Ethnikos Achna — on target (away)1.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

AEK Larnaca

Inside the box6.55
Outside the box4.27

Ethnikos Achna

Inside the box4.33
Outside the box2.17

Player Shots AEK Larnaca

E. Cabrera
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target0%
Đ. Ivanović
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target18%
R. Bajić
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target18%
R. Mudražija
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Miramón
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Ethnikos Achna

C. Giousis
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target40%
N. Andereggen
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Pechlivanis
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%
Rafael Camacho
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target0%
Pablo González
Shots on Target/Game0.2
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

AEK Larnaca xG (home)1.26
Ethnikos Achna xG (away)1.08

Average Possession

49.45% Possession 47.83%

Team Comparison AEK Larnaca vs Ethnikos Achna

80.77% Pass accuracy 80.5%
366.64 Passes per match 355.67
0 Goals prevented 0
11.73 Fouls committed 17
2.91 Goalkeeper saves 3.83
1.55 Offsides 1
1.64 Tackles per match 3.83

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

AEK Larnaca vs Ethnikos Achna prediction analysis

Review AEK Larnaca vs Ethnikos Achna with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from 1. Division.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance 1. Division
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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