What markets are included in the Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2025-10-18 19:00

Ajax

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

52%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-0

AZ Alkmaar

Away

Prediction Summary

55%

24%

21%

Over 2.5

52%

BTTS Yes

52%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Ajax (Home)

Goals scored / match1.79

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate53%

AZ Alkmaar (Away)

Goals scored / match1.12

Goals conceded / match1.47

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Ajax

DWDLD

AZ Alkmaar

DDDDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 76%

63% +1.5 29%

16% +2.5 6%

11% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Low.

Ajax averages 1.79 goals scored at home, while AZ Alkmaar averages 1.12 goals scored away.

Model Strength

55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

55%

Draw

24%

Away Win

21%

Over 2.5

52%

BTTS Yes

52%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Ajax(A) 1 - 1 AZ Alkmaar Draw

Jan 2026 Ajax(A) 0 - 6 AZ Alkmaar Away

Oct 2025 Ajax 0 - 2 AZ Alkmaar Away

Mar 2025 Ajax 2 - 2 AZ Alkmaar Draw

Jan 2025 Ajax(A) 0 - 2 AZ Alkmaar Away

In the last 5 meetings, Ajax won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Ajax — unbeaten run (home)2

Ajax — scoring streak (home)0

AZ Alkmaar — winless run (away)5

AZ Alkmaar — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Ajax Win (1)55%

Draw (X)24%

AZ Alkmaar Win (2)21%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 76%

63% +1.5 29%

16% +2.5 6%

11% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 24%

37% -1.5 71%

84% -2.5 94%

89% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Ajax — scored (home)1.79

Ajax — conceded (home)0.89

AZ Alkmaar — scored (away)1.12

AZ Alkmaar — conceded (away)1.47

Model expected combined goals2.75

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%

No48%

Rate per Team

Ajax — BTTS matches (home)53%

AZ Alkmaar — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%

Under 4.58%

Over 5.589%

Under 5.511%

Over 6.584%

Under 6.516%

Over 7.581%

Under 7.519%

Over 8.570%

Under 8.530%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.539%

Under 10.561%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Ajax (home)

Corners for5.4

Corners against4.1

AZ Alkmaar (away)

Corners for5.6

Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Ajax

10 11 16 4 12

AZ Alkmaar

12 15 7 10 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%

Under 0.55%

Over 1.586%

Under 1.514%

Over 2.570%

Under 2.530%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Ajax (home)

For1.6

AZ Alkmaar (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Ajax — total shots (home)16.3

AZ Alkmaar — total shots (away)15.4

Shots on Target

Ajax — on target (home)6.5

AZ Alkmaar — on target (away)5.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Ajax

Inside the box10.03

Outside the box4.83

AZ Alkmaar

Inside the box10.35

Outside the box5.41

Player Shots Ajax

M. Godts

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target71%

+1.5 On Target38%

S. Berghuis

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target29%

O. Gloukh

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target14%

K. Taylor

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target7%

W. Weghorst

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target17%

Player Shots AZ Alkmaar

T. Parrott

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target79%

+1.5 On Target43%

S. Mijnans

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target70%

+1.5 On Target33%

M. Meerdink

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target47%

+1.5 On Target21%

Weslley Patati

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target11%

I. Sadiq

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Ajax xG (home)1.62

AZ Alkmaar xG (away)1.88

Average Possession

56.39% Possession 53.18%

Team Comparison Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar

85.03% Pass accuracy 81.85%

528.97 Passes per match 457.76

0.13 Goals prevented -0.09

10.25 Fouls committed 10.21

3.19 Goalkeeper saves 3.06

1.48 Offsides 1.22

16.89 Tackles per match 17.85

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction analysis

Review Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights