What markets are included in the Ajax vs Excelsior prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Ajax vs Excelsior prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Ajax vs Excelsior

Ajax vs Excelsior prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2025-11-22 17:45

Ajax

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

60%

Confidence

Medium

Score

2-0

Excelsior

Away

Prediction Summary

66%

19%

15%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Yes

53%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Ajax (Home)

Goals scored / match1.79

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate53%

Excelsior (Away)

Goals scored / match1.35

Goals conceded / match2

Over 2.5 rate12%

BTTS rate76%

Team Form last 5 matches

Ajax

DWDLD

Excelsior

WDWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 82%

63% +1.5 41%

16% +2.5 12%

11% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 76%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.

Ajax averages 1.79 goals scored at home, while Excelsior averages 1.35 goals scored away.

Model Strength

66%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

66%

Draw

19%

Away Win

15%

Over 2.5

60%

BTTS Yes

53%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Ajax(A) 2 - 2 Excelsior Draw

Nov 2025 Ajax 1 - 2 Excelsior Away

Apr 2024 Ajax 2 - 2 Excelsior Draw

Aug 2023 Ajax(A) 2 - 2 Excelsior Draw

Jan 2023 Ajax(A) 4 - 1 Excelsior Home

In the last 5 meetings, Ajax won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Ajax — unbeaten run (home)2

Ajax — scoring streak (home)0

Excelsior — winless run (away)0

Excelsior — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Ajax Win (1)66%

Draw (X)19%

Excelsior Win (2)15%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 82%

63% +1.5 41%

16% +2.5 12%

11% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 18%

37% -1.5 59%

84% -2.5 88%

89% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Ajax vs Excelsior — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Ajax — scored (home)1.79

Ajax — conceded (home)0.89

Excelsior — scored (away)1.35

Excelsior — conceded (away)2

Model expected combined goals3.08

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%

No47%

Rate per Team

Ajax — BTTS matches (home)53%

Excelsior — BTTS matches (away)76%

Combined (simple average)64.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%

Under 4.58%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.590%

Under 6.510%

Over 7.581%

Under 7.519%

Over 8.564%

Under 8.536%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.539%

Under 10.561%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Ajax (home)

Corners for5.4

Corners against4.1

Excelsior (away)

Corners for4.0

Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Ajax

10 11 16 4 12

Excelsior

7 5 13 5 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.589%

Under 0.511%

Over 1.583%

Under 1.517%

Over 2.558%

Under 2.542%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3

Yellow Cards per Team

Ajax (home)

For1.6

Excelsior (away)

For1.3

Shots per Game

Ajax — total shots (home)16.3

Excelsior — total shots (away)12.1

Shots on Target

Ajax — on target (home)6.5

Excelsior — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Ajax

Inside the box10.03

Outside the box4.83

Excelsior

Inside the box8.24

Outside the box4.24

Player Shots Ajax

M. Godts

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target71%

+1.5 On Target38%

S. Berghuis

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target29%

O. Gloukh

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target14%

K. Taylor

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target7%

W. Weghorst

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target17%

Player Shots Excelsior

N. Naujoks

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target19%

D. Sanches Fernandes

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target12%

G. de Regt

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target6%

I. Yegoian

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target6%

M. Jonathans

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Ajax xG (home)1.62

Excelsior xG (away)1.34

Average Possession

56.39% Possession 47.56%

Team Comparison Ajax vs Excelsior

85.03% Pass accuracy 77.47%

528.97 Passes per match 404.35

0.13 Goals prevented 0.06

10.25 Fouls committed 12.29

3.19 Goalkeeper saves 3.82

1.48 Offsides 1.03

16.89 Tackles per match 14.41

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Ajax vs Excelsior prediction analysis

Review Ajax vs Excelsior with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights