Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Ajax vs Feyenoord

Ajax vs Feyenoord prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2025-12-14 13:30
Ajax
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
62%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Feyenoord
Away

Prediction Summary

1
27%
X
23%
2
50%
Over 2.5
62%
BTTS Yes
62%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Ajax (Home)

Goals scored / match1.79
Goals conceded / match0.89
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate53%

Feyenoord (Away)

Goals scored / match1.82
Goals conceded / match1.24
Over 2.5 rate24%
BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Ajax
DWDLD
Feyenoord
WDWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 76%
63% +1.5 53%
16% +2.5 24%
11% +3.5 12%
0% +4.5 6%
53% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 62%. Model confidence is Medium.

Ajax averages 1.79 goals scored at home, while Feyenoord averages 1.82 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
27%
Draw
23%
Away Win
50%
Over 2.5
62%
BTTS Yes
62%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Ajax(A) 1 - 1 Feyenoord Draw
Dec 2025 Ajax 2 - 0 Feyenoord Home
Feb 2025 Ajax 2 - 1 Feyenoord Home
Oct 2024 Ajax(A) 2 - 0 Feyenoord Home
Apr 2024 Ajax(A) 0 - 6 Feyenoord Away

In the last 5 meetings, Ajax won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Ajax — unbeaten run (home)2
Ajax — scoring streak (home)0
Feyenoord — winless run (away)0
Feyenoord — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Ajax Win (1)27%
Draw (X)23%
Feyenoord Win (2)50%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 76%
63% +1.5 53%
16% +2.5 24%
11% +3.5 12%
0% +4.5 6%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 24%
37% -1.5 47%
84% -2.5 76%
89% -3.5 88%
100% -4.5 94%

Ajax vs Feyenoord — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Ajax — scored (home)1.79
Ajax — conceded (home)0.89
Feyenoord — scored (away)1.82
Feyenoord — conceded (away)1.24
Model expected combined goals3.18

Both Teams To Score

Yes62%
No38%

Rate per Team

Ajax — BTTS matches (home)53%
Feyenoord — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%
Under 4.58%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.584%
Under 6.516%
Over 7.581%
Under 7.519%
Over 8.567%
Under 8.533%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Ajax (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against4.1

Feyenoord (away)

Corners for6.6
Corners against3.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Ajax
10 11 16 4 12
Feyenoord
5 6 9 10 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.589%
Under 0.511%
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Ajax (home)

For1.6

Feyenoord (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Ajax — total shots (home)16.3
Feyenoord — total shots (away)15.1

Shots on Target

Ajax — on target (home)6.5
Feyenoord — on target (away)5.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Ajax

Inside the box10.03
Outside the box4.83

Feyenoord

Inside the box11.65
Outside the box5.12

Player Shots Ajax

M. Godts
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target38%
S. Berghuis
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target29%
O. Gloukh
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target14%
K. Taylor
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target7%
W. Weghorst
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target17%

Player Shots Feyenoord

A. Ueda
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target45%
A. Hadj-Moussa
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target40%
S. Steijn
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target14%
J. Moder
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target10%
L. Sauer
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target15%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Ajax xG (home)1.62
Feyenoord xG (away)2.03

Average Possession

56.39% Possession 53.09%

Team Comparison Ajax vs Feyenoord

85.03% Pass accuracy 82.24%
528.97 Passes per match 436.91
0.13 Goals prevented 0.12
10.25 Fouls committed 9.76
3.19 Goalkeeper saves 2.62
1.48 Offsides 1.3
16.89 Tackles per match 15.76

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Ajax vs Feyenoord prediction analysis

Review Ajax vs Feyenoord with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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