What markets are included in the Ajax vs Heerenveen prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Ajax vs Heerenveen prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Ajax vs Heerenveen

Ajax vs Heerenveen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions

Eredivisie 2026-08-16 14:45

Ajax

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

57%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Heerenveen

Away

Prediction Summary

52%

23%

25%

Over 2.5

57%

BTTS Yes

57%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Ajax (Home)

Goals scored / match1.79

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate53%

Heerenveen (Away)

Goals scored / match1.44

Goals conceded / match1.78

Over 2.5 rate22%

BTTS rate56%

Team Form last 5 matches

Ajax

DWDLD

Heerenveen

LDLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 72%

63% +1.5 50%

16% +2.5 22%

11% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 56%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.

Ajax averages 1.79 goals scored at home, while Heerenveen averages 1.44 goals scored away.

Model Strength

57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

52%

Draw

23%

Away Win

25%

Over 2.5

57%

BTTS Yes

57%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Ajax(A) 0 - 0 Heerenveen Draw

Nov 2025 Ajax 1 - 1 Heerenveen Draw

Jan 2025 Ajax(A) 2 - 0 Heerenveen Home

Aug 2024 Ajax 1 - 0 Heerenveen Home

Feb 2024 Ajax(A) 2 - 3 Heerenveen Away

In the last 5 meetings, Ajax won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Ajax — unbeaten run (home)2

Ajax — scoring streak (home)0

Heerenveen — winless run (away)2

Heerenveen — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Ajax Win (1)52%

Draw (X)23%

Heerenveen Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 72%

63% +1.5 50%

16% +2.5 22%

11% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 28%

37% -1.5 50%

84% -2.5 78%

89% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Ajax vs Heerenveen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Ajax — scored (home)1.79

Ajax — conceded (home)0.89

Heerenveen — scored (away)1.44

Heerenveen — conceded (away)1.78

Model expected combined goals2.95

Both Teams To Score

Yes57%

No43%

Rate per Team

Ajax — BTTS matches (home)53%

Heerenveen — BTTS matches (away)56%

Combined (simple average)54.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.564%

Under 8.536%

Over 9.554%

Under 9.546%

Over 10.545%

Under 10.555%

Expected total corners (model prediction)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Ajax (home)

Corners for5.4

Corners against4.1

Heerenveen (away)

Corners for5.2

Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Ajax

10 11 16 4 12

Heerenveen

7 12 10 16 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.592%

Under 0.58%

Over 1.584%

Under 1.516%

Over 2.560%

Under 2.540%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Ajax (home)

For1.6

Heerenveen (away)

For1.6

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.578%

Under 19.522%

Over 22.566%

Under 22.534%

Over 25.554%

Under 25.546%

Expected total shots27.63

Ajax

Shots Over 9.585%

Shots Over 11.574%

Shots Over 13.561%

Expected shots15.94

On Target Over 3.578%

On Target Over 4.565%

On Target Over 5.552%

Expected on target6.04

Heerenveen

Shots Over 9.563%

Shots Over 11.547%

Shots Over 13.532%

Expected shots11.69

On Target Over 3.555%

On Target Over 4.539%

On Target Over 5.526%

Expected on target4.12

Shots per Game

Ajax — total shots (home)16.3

Heerenveen — total shots (away)13.7

Shots on Target

Ajax — on target (home)6.5

Heerenveen — on target (away)4.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Ajax

Inside the box10.03

Outside the box4.83

Heerenveen

Inside the box9.89

Outside the box5

Player Shots Ajax

M. Godts

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target71%

+1.5 On Target38%

S. Berghuis

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target29%

O. Gloukh

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target62%

+1.5 On Target14%

K. Taylor

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target7%

W. Weghorst

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target17%

Player Shots Heerenveen

J. Trenskow

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target68%

+1.5 On Target35%

L. Nordås

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target35%

M. Rivera

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target27%

D. Vente

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target61%

+1.5 On Target16%

R. Meerveld

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target16%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Ajax xG (home)1.62

Heerenveen xG (away)1.71

Average Possession

56.39% Possession 51.2%

Team Comparison Ajax vs Heerenveen

85.03% Pass accuracy 79.77%

528.97 Passes per match 443.94

0.13 Goals prevented -0.23

10.25 Fouls committed 10.89

3.19 Goalkeeper saves 3.83

1.48 Offsides 1.26

16.89 Tackles per match 15.17

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Ajax vs Heerenveen prediction analysis

Review Ajax vs Heerenveen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights