What markets are included in the Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2025-05-03 12:00

Alaves

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

31%

Confidence

Medium

Score

0-1

Atletico Madrid

Away

Prediction Summary

24%

30%

46%

Under 2.5

69%

BTTS No

62%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Alaves (Home)

Goals scored / match0.74

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate32%

Atletico Madrid (Away)

Goals scored / match1.37

Goals conceded / match0.79

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Alaves

DWWLD

Atletico Madrid

WWLWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

58% +0.5 74%

16% +1.5 32%

0% +2.5 16%

0% +3.5 11%

0% +4.5 5%

32% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 31%. Model confidence is Medium.

Alaves averages 0.74 goals scored at home, while Atletico Madrid averages 1.37 goals scored away.

Model Strength

69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

24%

Draw

30%

Away Win

46%

Over 2.5

31%

BTTS Yes

38%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Alaves(A) 0 - 1 Atletico Madrid Away

Aug 2025 Alaves 1 - 1 Atletico Madrid Draw

May 2025 Alaves 0 - 0 Atletico Madrid Draw

Nov 2024 Alaves(A) 1 - 2 Atletico Madrid Away

Apr 2024 Alaves 2 - 0 Atletico Madrid Home

In the last 5 meetings, Alaves won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Alaves — unbeaten run (home)4

Alaves — scoring streak (home)2

Atletico Madrid — winless run (away)0

Atletico Madrid — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Alaves Win (1)24%

Draw (X)30%

Atletico Madrid Win (2)46%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

58% +0.5 74%

16% +1.5 32%

0% +2.5 16%

0% +3.5 11%

0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

42% -0.5 26%

84% -1.5 68%

100% -2.5 84%

100% -3.5 89%

100% -4.5 95%

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Alaves — scored (home)0.74

Alaves — conceded (home)0.89

Atletico Madrid — scored (away)1.37

Atletico Madrid — conceded (away)0.79

Model expected combined goals1.97

Both Teams To Score

Yes38%

No62%

Rate per Team

Alaves — BTTS matches (home)32%

Atletico Madrid — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)37%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.587%

Under 6.513%

Over 7.569%

Under 7.531%

Over 8.548%

Under 8.552%

Over 9.537%

Under 9.563%

Over 10.537%

Under 10.563%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Alaves (home)

Corners for5.8

Corners against4.7

Atletico Madrid (away)

Corners for4.2

Corners against4.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Alaves

8 11 13 14 14

Atletico Madrid

8 6 8 11 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%

Under 0.55%

Over 1.595%

Under 1.55%

Over 2.590%

Under 2.510%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Alaves (home)

For2.6

Atletico Madrid (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Alaves — total shots (home)10.6

Atletico Madrid — total shots (away)10.1

Shots on Target

Alaves — on target (home)3.5

Atletico Madrid — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Alaves

Inside the box7.03

Outside the box3.61

Atletico Madrid

Inside the box8.45

Outside the box3.89

Player Shots Alaves

Manu Sánchez

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target3%

+1.5 On Target3%

Kike García

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target54%

+1.5 On Target17%

Carlos Vicente

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target8%

Toni Martínez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target11%

Carlos Martín

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Atletico Madrid

A. Sørloth

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target66%

+1.5 On Target26%

J. Álvarez

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target24%

Robin Le Normand

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target7%

+1.5 On Target4%

A. Griezmann

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target34%

+1.5 On Target11%

C. Gallagher

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target9%

+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Alaves xG (home)1.16

Atletico Madrid xG (away)1.73

Average Possession

45.26% Possession 52.53%

Team Comparison Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

73.08% Pass accuracy 84.61%

341.03 Passes per match 518.08

0 Goals prevented 0.02

16.39 Fouls committed 10.84

2.29 Goalkeeper saves 2.32

2.14 Offsides 2.12

19.21 Tackles per match 16.29

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction analysis

Review Alaves vs Atletico Madrid with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights