What markets are included in the Alaves vs Real Madrid prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Alaves vs Real Madrid prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Alaves vs Real Madrid

Alaves vs Real Madrid prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2025-04-13 14:15

Alaves

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

40%

Confidence

Medium

Score

0-1

Real Madrid

Away

Prediction Summary

24%

27%

49%

Under 2.5

60%

BTTS No

55%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Alaves (Home)

Goals scored / match0.74

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate32%

Real Madrid (Away)

Goals scored / match1.74

Goals conceded / match1

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Alaves

DWWLD

Real Madrid

WWWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

58% +0.5 95%

16% +1.5 53%

0% +2.5 26%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

32% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Alaves averages 0.74 goals scored at home, while Real Madrid averages 1.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength

60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

24%

Draw

27%

Away Win

49%

Over 2.5

40%

BTTS Yes

45%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Alaves(A) 1 - 2 Real Madrid Away

Dec 2025 Alaves 1 - 2 Real Madrid Away

Apr 2025 Alaves 0 - 1 Real Madrid Away

Sep 2024 Alaves(A) 2 - 3 Real Madrid Away

May 2024 Alaves(A) 0 - 5 Real Madrid Away

In the last 5 meetings, Alaves won 0, drew 0 and lost 5.

Current Streaks

Alaves — unbeaten run (home)4

Alaves — scoring streak (home)2

Real Madrid — winless run (away)0

Real Madrid — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Alaves Win (1)24%

Draw (X)27%

Real Madrid Win (2)49%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

58% +0.5 95%

16% +1.5 53%

0% +2.5 26%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

42% -0.5 5%

84% -1.5 47%

100% -2.5 74%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Alaves vs Real Madrid — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Alaves — scored (home)0.74

Alaves — conceded (home)0.89

Real Madrid — scored (away)1.74

Real Madrid — conceded (away)1

Model expected combined goals2.3

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%

No55%

Rate per Team

Alaves — BTTS matches (home)32%

Real Madrid — BTTS matches (away)58%

Combined (simple average)45%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.5100%

Under 5.50%

Over 6.595%

Under 6.55%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.543%

Under 9.557%

Over 10.540%

Under 10.560%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Alaves (home)

Corners for5.8

Corners against4.7

Real Madrid (away)

Corners for4.4

Corners against4.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Alaves

8 11 13 14 14

Real Madrid

10 12 26 8 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.595%

Under 1.55%

Over 2.587%

Under 2.513%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

Alaves (home)

For2.6

Real Madrid (away)

For1.7

Shots per Game

Alaves — total shots (home)10.6

Real Madrid — total shots (away)14.1

Shots on Target

Alaves — on target (home)3.5

Real Madrid — on target (away)5.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Alaves

Inside the box7.03

Outside the box3.61

Real Madrid

Inside the box10.61

Outside the box6.08

Player Shots Alaves

Manu Sánchez

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target3%

+1.5 On Target3%

Kike García

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target54%

+1.5 On Target17%

Carlos Vicente

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target8%

Toni Martínez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target11%

Carlos Martín

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé

Shots on Target/Game2.8

+0.5 On Target88%

+1.5 On Target79%

A. Güler

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target14%

Vinícius Júnior

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target20%

Brahim Díaz

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target10%

J. Bellingham

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target19%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Alaves xG (home)1.16

Real Madrid xG (away)1.98

Average Possession

45.26% Possession 60.42%

Team Comparison Alaves vs Real Madrid

73.08% Pass accuracy 89.42%

341.03 Passes per match 598.26

0 Goals prevented 0.04

16.39 Fouls committed 8.74

2.29 Goalkeeper saves 2.37

2.14 Offsides 2.36

19.21 Tackles per match 15.42

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Alaves vs Real Madrid prediction analysis

Review Alaves vs Real Madrid with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights