What markets are included in the Alaves vs Real Sociedad prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Alaves vs Real Sociedad prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Alaves vs Real Sociedad

Alaves vs Real Sociedad prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2025-04-23 19:30

Alaves

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

31%

Confidence

Medium

Score

0-1

Real Sociedad

Away

Prediction Summary

33%

31%

36%

Under 2.5

69%

BTTS No

61%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Alaves (Home)

Goals scored / match0.74

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate32%

Real Sociedad (Away)

Goals scored / match0.79

Goals conceded / match1.37

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate21%

Team Form last 5 matches

Alaves

DWWLD

Real Sociedad

LWLLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

58% +0.5 42%

16% +1.5 26%

0% +2.5 11%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

32% BTTS 21%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 31%. Model confidence is Medium.

Alaves averages 0.74 goals scored at home, while Real Sociedad averages 0.79 goals scored away.

Model Strength

69%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

33%

Draw

31%

Away Win

36%

Over 2.5

31%

BTTS Yes

39%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Alaves(A) 3 - 3 Real Sociedad Draw

Feb 2026 Alaves 2 - 3 Real Sociedad Away

Dec 2025 Alaves 1 - 0 Real Sociedad Home

Apr 2025 Alaves 1 - 0 Real Sociedad Home

Aug 2024 Alaves(A) 2 - 1 Real Sociedad Home

In the last 5 meetings, Alaves won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Alaves — unbeaten run (home)4

Alaves — scoring streak (home)2

Real Sociedad — winless run (away)4

Real Sociedad — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Alaves Win (1)33%

Draw (X)31%

Real Sociedad Win (2)36%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

58% +0.5 42%

16% +1.5 26%

0% +2.5 11%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

42% -0.5 58%

84% -1.5 74%

100% -2.5 89%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Alaves vs Real Sociedad — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Alaves — scored (home)0.74

Alaves — conceded (home)0.89

Real Sociedad — scored (away)0.79

Real Sociedad — conceded (away)1.37

Model expected combined goals1.96

Both Teams To Score

Yes39%

No61%

Rate per Team

Alaves — BTTS matches (home)32%

Real Sociedad — BTTS matches (away)21%

Combined (simple average)26.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.598%

Under 5.52%

Over 6.592%

Under 6.58%

Over 7.584%

Under 7.516%

Over 8.566%

Under 8.534%

Over 9.558%

Under 9.542%

Over 10.553%

Under 10.547%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Alaves (home)

Corners for5.8

Corners against4.7

Real Sociedad (away)

Corners for4.6

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Alaves

8 11 13 14 14

Real Sociedad

10 6 15 11 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%

Under 0.55%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.582%

Under 2.518%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Alaves (home)

For2.6

Real Sociedad (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Alaves — total shots (home)10.6

Real Sociedad — total shots (away)8.4

Shots on Target

Alaves — on target (home)3.5

Real Sociedad — on target (away)2.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Alaves

Inside the box7.03

Outside the box3.61

Real Sociedad

Inside the box6.76

Outside the box3.47

Player Shots Alaves

Manu Sánchez

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target3%

+1.5 On Target3%

Kike García

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target54%

+1.5 On Target17%

Carlos Vicente

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target8%

Toni Martínez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target11%

Carlos Martín

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Real Sociedad

A. Zakharyan

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target33%

O. Óskarsson

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target4%

Mikel Oyarzabal

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target9%

Barrenetxea

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target20%

+1.5 On Target7%

S. Becker

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Alaves xG (home)1.16

Real Sociedad xG (away)1.12

Average Possession

45.26% Possession 54.08%

Team Comparison Alaves vs Real Sociedad

73.08% Pass accuracy 81.21%

341.03 Passes per match 446.97

0 Goals prevented -0.05

16.39 Fouls committed 13.18

2.29 Goalkeeper saves 2.55

2.14 Offsides 2.16

19.21 Tackles per match 17.05

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Alaves vs Real Sociedad prediction analysis

Review Alaves vs Real Sociedad with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights