What markets are included in the Alaves vs Valencia prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Alaves vs Valencia prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Alaves vs Valencia

Alaves vs Valencia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2025-05-14 17:00

Alaves

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

39%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Valencia

Away

Prediction Summary

44%

28%

Under 2.5

61%

BTTS No

55%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Alaves (Home)

Goals scored / match0.74

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate32%

Valencia (Away)

Goals scored / match0.95

Goals conceded / match1.79

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate68%

Team Form last 5 matches

Alaves

DWWLD

Valencia

DLLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

58% +0.5 68%

16% +1.5 16%

0% +2.5 11%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

32% BTTS 68%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 39%. Model confidence is Medium.

Alaves averages 0.74 goals scored at home, while Valencia averages 0.95 goals scored away.

Model Strength

61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

44%

Draw

28%

Away Win

28%

Over 2.5

39%

BTTS Yes

45%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Alaves(A) 2 - 3 Valencia Away

Oct 2025 Alaves 0 - 0 Valencia Draw

May 2025 Alaves 1 - 0 Valencia Home

Dec 2024 Alaves(A) 2 - 2 Valencia Draw

May 2024 Alaves(A) 1 - 0 Valencia Home

In the last 5 meetings, Alaves won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Alaves — unbeaten run (home)4

Alaves — scoring streak (home)2

Valencia — winless run (away)2

Valencia — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Alaves Win (1)44%

Draw (X)28%

Valencia Win (2)28%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

58% +0.5 68%

16% +1.5 16%

0% +2.5 11%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

42% -0.5 32%

84% -1.5 84%

100% -2.5 89%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Alaves vs Valencia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Alaves — scored (home)0.74

Alaves — conceded (home)0.89

Valencia — scored (away)0.95

Valencia — conceded (away)1.79

Model expected combined goals2.27

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%

No55%

Rate per Team

Alaves — BTTS matches (home)32%

Valencia — BTTS matches (away)68%

Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.595%

Under 5.55%

Over 6.590%

Under 6.510%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.566%

Under 8.534%

Over 9.556%

Under 9.544%

Over 10.548%

Under 10.552%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Alaves (home)

Corners for5.8

Corners against4.7

Valencia (away)

Corners for3.9

Corners against6.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Alaves

8 11 13 14 14

Valencia

14 8 13 8 5

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.587%

Under 2.513%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Alaves (home)

For2.6

Valencia (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Alaves — total shots (home)10.6

Valencia — total shots (away)8.9

Shots on Target

Alaves — on target (home)3.5

Valencia — on target (away)2.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Alaves

Inside the box7.03

Outside the box3.61

Valencia

Inside the box6.79

Outside the box3.37

Player Shots Alaves

Manu Sánchez

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target3%

+1.5 On Target3%

Kike García

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target54%

+1.5 On Target17%

Carlos Vicente

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target8%

Toni Martínez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target11%

Carlos Martín

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Valencia

Hugo Duro

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target19%

Sergi Canós

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target12%

+1.5 On Target6%

Javi Guerra

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target19%

+1.5 On Target8%

Dani Gómez

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target7%

Pepelu

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target15%

+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Alaves xG (home)1.16

Valencia xG (away)1.12

Average Possession

45.26% Possession 48.32%

Team Comparison Alaves vs Valencia

73.08% Pass accuracy 80.08%

341.03 Passes per match 419.5

0 Goals prevented -0.03

16.39 Fouls committed 11.63

2.29 Goalkeeper saves 2.61

2.14 Offsides 1.89

19.21 Tackles per match 17

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Alaves vs Valencia prediction analysis

Review Alaves vs Valencia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights