Prediction Analysis: Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-04-26
21:10
Alianza Valledupar
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
28%
Confidence
High
Score
1-0
Águilas Doradas
Away
Prediction Summary
1
42%
X
32%
2
26%
Under 2.5
72%
BTTS No
64%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Alianza Valledupar (Home)
Goals scored / match1.45
Goals conceded / match0.7
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate35%
Águilas Doradas (Away)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.1
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate50%
Team Form last 5 matches
Alianza Valledupar
LWWWL
Águilas Doradas
LLWWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
75%
+0.5
60%
35%
+1.5
25%
20%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
5%
35%
BTTS
50%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 28%. Model confidence is High.
Alianza Valledupar averages 1.45 goals scored at home, while Águilas Doradas averages 1 goals scored away.
Model Strength
72%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
42%
Draw
32%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
28%
BTTS Yes
36%
Head-to-Head last 2
Oct 2025
Alianza Valledupar(A)
0 - 1
Águilas Doradas
Away
Apr 2025
Alianza Valledupar
0 - 0
Águilas Doradas
Draw
In the last 2 meetings, Alianza Valledupar won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Alianza Valledupar — unbeaten run (home)2
Alianza Valledupar — scoring streak (home)2
Águilas Doradas — winless run (away)1
Águilas Doradas — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Alianza Valledupar Win (1)42%
Draw (X)32%
Águilas Doradas Win (2)26%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
75%
+0.5
60%
35%
+1.5
25%
20%
+2.5
5%
5%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
25%
-0.5
40%
65%
-1.5
75%
80%
-2.5
95%
95%
-3.5
95%
95%
-4.5
95%
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Alianza Valledupar — scored (home)1.45
Alianza Valledupar — conceded (home)0.7
Águilas Doradas — scored (away)1
Águilas Doradas — conceded (away)1.1
Model expected combined goals1.86
Both Teams To Score
Yes36%
No64%
Rate per Team
Alianza Valledupar — BTTS matches (home)35%
Águilas Doradas — BTTS matches (away)50%
Combined (simple average)42.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.590%
Under 6.510%
Over 7.583%
Under 7.517%
Over 8.568%
Under 8.532%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.545%
Under 10.555%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Alianza Valledupar (home)
Corners for5.8
Corners against4.5
Águilas Doradas (away)
Corners for4.7
Corners against5.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Alianza Valledupar
16
11
9
10
6
Águilas Doradas
16
7
12
9
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.598%
Under 2.52%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Alianza Valledupar (home)
For2.7
Águilas Doradas (away)
For3.0
Shots per Game
Alianza Valledupar — total shots (home)14.5
Águilas Doradas — total shots (away)11.3
Shots on Target
Alianza Valledupar — on target (home)5.0
Águilas Doradas — on target (away)3.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Alianza Valledupar
Inside the box6.4
Outside the box5.8
Águilas Doradas
Inside the box6.5
Outside the box5.55
Player Shots Alianza Valledupar
C. Lucumi
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target53%
F. Pardo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target3%
J. Muñoz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
M. Martinez
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%
Player Shots Águilas Doradas
Y. González
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target22%
F. Salazar
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target27%
J. Rivaldo
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target9%
D. Lemos
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
W. Morelo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target6%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Valledupar xG (home)1.2
Águilas Doradas xG (away)1.19
Average Possession
49.88%
Possession
47.55%
Team Comparison Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas
78.53%
Pass accuracy
77.18%
349.75
Passes per match
329.4
0
Goals prevented
0
12
Fouls committed
11.88
2.55
Goalkeeper saves
2.8
1.97
Offsides
1.56
12.03
Tackles per match
12.18
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas prediction analysis
Review Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights