Prediction Analysis: Alianza Valledupar vs Bucaramanga
Alianza Valledupar vs Bucaramanga prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primera A
2025-03-23
20:30
Alianza Valledupar
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
33%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Bucaramanga
Away
Prediction Summary
1
46%
X
30%
2
24%
Under 2.5
67%
BTTS No
61%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Alianza Valledupar (Home)
Goals scored / match1.45
Goals conceded / match0.7
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate35%
Bucaramanga (Away)
Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.09
Over 2.5 rate9%
BTTS rate55%
Team Form last 5 matches
Alianza Valledupar
LWWWL
Bucaramanga
DDWLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
75%
+0.5
68%
35%
+1.5
23%
20%
+2.5
9%
5%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
0%
35%
BTTS
55%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 33%. Model confidence is Medium.
Alianza Valledupar averages 1.45 goals scored at home, while Bucaramanga averages 1.05 goals scored away.
Model Strength
67%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
46%
Draw
30%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
33%
BTTS Yes
39%
Head-to-Head last 4
Sep 2025
Alianza Valledupar(A)
1 - 3
Bucaramanga
Away
Aug 2025
Alianza Valledupar
1 - 3
Bucaramanga
Away
Mar 2025
Alianza Valledupar
1 - 2
Bucaramanga
Away
Feb 2025
Alianza Valledupar(A)
0 - 0
Bucaramanga
Draw
In the last 4 meetings, Alianza Valledupar won 0, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Alianza Valledupar — unbeaten run (home)2
Alianza Valledupar — scoring streak (home)2
Bucaramanga — winless run (away)1
Bucaramanga — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Alianza Valledupar Win (1)46%
Draw (X)30%
Bucaramanga Win (2)24%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
75%
+0.5
68%
35%
+1.5
23%
20%
+2.5
9%
5%
+3.5
5%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
25%
-0.5
32%
65%
-1.5
77%
80%
-2.5
91%
95%
-3.5
95%
95%
-4.5
100%
Alianza Valledupar vs Bucaramanga — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Alianza Valledupar — scored (home)1.45
Alianza Valledupar — conceded (home)0.7
Bucaramanga — scored (away)1.05
Bucaramanga — conceded (away)1.09
Model expected combined goals2.03
Both Teams To Score
Yes39%
No61%
Rate per Team
Alianza Valledupar — BTTS matches (home)35%
Bucaramanga — BTTS matches (away)55%
Combined (simple average)45%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.588%
Under 5.512%
Over 6.586%
Under 6.514%
Over 7.576%
Under 7.524%
Over 8.556%
Under 8.544%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.542%
Under 10.558%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
Alianza Valledupar (home)
Corners for5.8
Corners against4.5
Bucaramanga (away)
Corners for4.8
Corners against4.0
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Alianza Valledupar
16
11
9
10
6
Bucaramanga
8
11
11
8
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.591%
Under 2.59%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Alianza Valledupar (home)
For2.7
Bucaramanga (away)
For2.6
Shots per Game
Alianza Valledupar — total shots (home)14.5
Bucaramanga — total shots (away)11.2
Shots on Target
Alianza Valledupar — on target (home)5.0
Bucaramanga — on target (away)3.3
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Alianza Valledupar
Inside the box6.4
Outside the box5.8
Bucaramanga
Inside the box7.09
Outside the box5.84
Player Shots Alianza Valledupar
C. Lucumi
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target53%
F. Pardo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target3%
J. Muñoz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
M. Martinez
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%
Player Shots Bucaramanga
L. Pons
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target76%
+1.5 On Target32%
F. Sambueza
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target16%
F. Castañeda
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
F. Gil
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target5%
A. Andrade
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Valledupar xG (home)1.2
Bucaramanga xG (away)1.14
Average Possession
49.88%
Possession
53.98%
Team Comparison Alianza Valledupar vs Bucaramanga
78.53%
Pass accuracy
80.57%
349.75
Passes per match
388.5
0
Goals prevented
0
12
Fouls committed
11.86
2.55
Goalkeeper saves
2.2
1.97
Offsides
1.72
12.03
Tackles per match
13.23
League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Alianza Valledupar vs Bucaramanga prediction analysis
Review Alianza Valledupar vs Bucaramanga with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights