Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto

Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-04-15 21:00
Alianza Valledupar
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
28%
Confidence
High
Score
0-0
Deportivo Pasto
Away

Prediction Summary

1
38%
X
32%
2
29%
Under 2.5
72%
BTTS No
64%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Alianza Valledupar (Home)

Goals scored / match1.45
Goals conceded / match0.7
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate35%

Deportivo Pasto (Away)

Goals scored / match0.55
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate40%

Team Form last 5 matches

Alianza Valledupar
LWWWL
Deportivo Pasto
WLWLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

75% +0.5 45%
35% +1.5 10%
20% +2.5 0%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
35% BTTS 40%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 28%. Model confidence is High.

Alianza Valledupar averages 1.45 goals scored at home, while Deportivo Pasto averages 0.55 goals scored away.

Model Strength
72%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
38%
Draw
32%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
28%
BTTS Yes
36%

Head-to-Head last 2

Oct 2025 Alianza Valledupar(A) 3 - 3 Deportivo Pasto Draw
Apr 2025 Alianza Valledupar 1 - 0 Deportivo Pasto Home

In the last 2 meetings, Alianza Valledupar won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Alianza Valledupar — unbeaten run (home)2
Alianza Valledupar — scoring streak (home)2
Deportivo Pasto — winless run (away)17
Deportivo Pasto — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Alianza Valledupar Win (1)38%
Draw (X)32%
Deportivo Pasto Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

75% +0.5 45%
35% +1.5 10%
20% +2.5 0%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

25% -0.5 55%
65% -1.5 90%
80% -2.5 100%
95% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Alianza Valledupar — scored (home)1.45
Alianza Valledupar — conceded (home)0.7
Deportivo Pasto — scored (away)0.55
Deportivo Pasto — conceded (away)1.35
Model expected combined goals1.83

Both Teams To Score

Yes36%
No64%

Rate per Team

Alianza Valledupar — BTTS matches (home)35%
Deportivo Pasto — BTTS matches (away)40%
Combined (simple average)37.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.570%
Under 7.530%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.555%
Under 9.545%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Alianza Valledupar (home)

Corners for5.8
Corners against4.5

Deportivo Pasto (away)

Corners for3.5
Corners against6.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Alianza Valledupar
16 11 9 10 6
Deportivo Pasto
7 16 11 5 4

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.598%
Under 2.52%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6

Yellow Cards per Team

Alianza Valledupar (home)

For2.7

Deportivo Pasto (away)

For3.7

Shots per Game

Alianza Valledupar — total shots (home)14.5
Deportivo Pasto — total shots (away)10.3

Shots on Target

Alianza Valledupar — on target (home)5.0
Deportivo Pasto — on target (away)3.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Alianza Valledupar

Inside the box6.4
Outside the box5.8

Deportivo Pasto

Inside the box5.88
Outside the box5.6

Player Shots Alianza Valledupar

C. Lucumi
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target53%
F. Pardo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target15%
E. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target3%
J. Muñoz
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
M. Martinez
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Deportivo Pasto

Y. Valois
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target56%
F. Boné
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target12%
G. Torres
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target11%
D. Camacho
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
J. Rivas
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Alianza Valledupar xG (home)1.2
Deportivo Pasto xG (away)0.98

Average Possession

49.88% Possession 43.55%

Team Comparison Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto

78.53% Pass accuracy 78.88%
349.75 Passes per match 317.15
0 Goals prevented 0
12 Fouls committed 13.58
2.55 Goalkeeper saves 2.55
1.97 Offsides 1.58
12.03 Tackles per match 12.18

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto prediction analysis

Review Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Pasto with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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