Prediction Analysis: Alverca vs Estrela
Alverca vs Estrela prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primeira Liga
2026-08-15
14:30
Alverca
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
53%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Estrela
Away
Prediction Summary
1
44%
X
26%
2
30%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Alverca (Home)
Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.35
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate53%
Estrela (Away)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.88
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Alverca
LDLWL
Estrela
DDLLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
76%
+0.5
53%
24%
+1.5
24%
6%
+2.5
12%
0%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
6%
53%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Low.
Alverca averages 1.06 goals scored at home, while Estrela averages 1 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
44%
Draw
26%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
Head-to-Head last 2
Jan 2026
Alverca
1 - 1
Estrela
Draw
Aug 2025
Alverca(A)
2 - 2
Estrela
Draw
In the last 2 meetings, Alverca won 0, drew 2 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Alverca — unbeaten run (home)3
Alverca — scoring streak (home)4
Estrela — winless run (away)9
Estrela — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Alverca Win (1)44%
Draw (X)26%
Estrela Win (2)30%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
76%
+0.5
53%
24%
+1.5
24%
6%
+2.5
12%
0%
+3.5
6%
0%
+4.5
6%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
24%
-0.5
47%
76%
-1.5
76%
94%
-2.5
88%
100%
-3.5
94%
100%
-4.5
94%
Alverca vs Estrela — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Alverca — scored (home)1.06
Alverca — conceded (home)1.35
Estrela — scored (away)1
Estrela — conceded (away)1.88
Model expected combined goals2.65
Both Teams To Score
Yes53%
No47%
Rate per Team
Alverca — BTTS matches (home)53%
Estrela — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Alverca (home)
Corners for4.6
Corners against3.2
Estrela (away)
Corners for3.1
Corners against6.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Alverca
12
9
9
8
11
Estrela
7
6
5
13
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7
Yellow Cards per Team
Alverca (home)
For1.9
Estrela (away)
For2.7
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.566%
Under 19.534%
Over 22.552%
Under 22.548%
Over 25.538%
Under 25.562%
Expected total shots23.79
Alverca
Shots Over 9.571%
Shots Over 11.556%
Shots Over 13.541%
Expected shots12.87
On Target Over 3.559%
On Target Over 4.542%
On Target Over 5.528%
Expected on target4.30
Estrela
Shots Over 9.558%
Shots Over 11.541%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots10.92
On Target Over 3.546%
On Target Over 4.530%
On Target Over 5.518%
Expected on target3.58
Shots per Game
Alverca — total shots (home)10.6
Estrela — total shots (away)8.6
Shots on Target
Alverca — on target (home)3.6
Estrela — on target (away)3.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Alverca
Inside the box6.15
Outside the box3.5
Estrela
Inside the box5.97
Outside the box4.88
Player Shots Alverca
Figueiredo
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target15%
M. Milovanović
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target19%
Sandro Lima
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target3%
Tiago Rafael Fernandes Leiite
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target11%
Lincoln
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target7%
Player Shots Estrela
Kikas
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target24%
Jovane Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target19%
S. Lopes Cabral
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target7%
Rodrigo Pinho
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target17%
A. Marcus
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Alverca xG (home)1.2
Estrela xG (away)1.2
Average Possession
44.85%
Possession
46.88%
Team Comparison Alverca vs Estrela
80%
Pass accuracy
79.41%
364.94
Passes per match
354.35
0.07
Goals prevented
0.08
12.53
Fouls committed
14.44
2.88
Goalkeeper saves
2.91
1.22
Offsides
1.82
16.18
Tackles per match
15.65
League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Alverca vs Estrela prediction analysis
Review Alverca vs Estrela with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights