What markets are included in the Alverca vs Tondela prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Alverca vs Tondela prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Alverca vs Tondela

Alverca vs Tondela prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-09-12 19:15

Alverca

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

49%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-1

Tondela

Away

Prediction Summary

47%

26%

27%

Under 2.5

51%

BTTS Yes

52%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Alverca (Home)

Goals scored / match1.06

Goals conceded / match1.35

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate53%

Tondela (Away)

Goals scored / match0.82

Goals conceded / match2

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate35%

Team Form last 5 matches

Alverca

LDLWL

Tondela

LWWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

76% +0.5 53%

24% +1.5 29%

6% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 35%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.

Alverca averages 1.06 goals scored at home, while Tondela averages 0.82 goals scored away.

Model Strength

52%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

47%

Draw

26%

Away Win

27%

Over 2.5

49%

BTTS Yes

52%

Head-to-Head last 4

Feb 2026 Alverca(A) 1 - 1 Tondela Draw

Sep 2025 Alverca 1 - 0 Tondela Home

May 2025 Alverca(A) 2 - 1 Tondela Home

Jan 2025 Alverca 1 - 1 Tondela Draw

In the last 4 meetings, Alverca won 2, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Alverca — unbeaten run (home)3

Alverca — scoring streak (home)4

Tondela — winless run (away)1

Tondela — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Alverca Win (1)47%

Draw (X)26%

Tondela Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

76% +0.5 53%

24% +1.5 29%

6% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

24% -0.5 47%

76% -1.5 71%

94% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Alverca vs Tondela — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Alverca — scored (home)1.06

Alverca — conceded (home)1.35

Tondela — scored (away)0.82

Tondela — conceded (away)2

Model expected combined goals2.62

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%

No48%

Rate per Team

Alverca — BTTS matches (home)53%

Tondela — BTTS matches (away)35%

Combined (simple average)44%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.588%

Under 4.512%

Over 5.583%

Under 5.517%

Over 6.574%

Under 6.526%

Over 7.559%

Under 7.541%

Over 8.544%

Under 8.556%

Over 9.536%

Under 9.564%

Over 10.533%

Under 10.567%

Expected total corners (blended average)8.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Alverca (home)

Corners for4.6

Corners against3.2

Tondela (away)

Corners for4.0

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Alverca

12 9 9 8 11

Tondela

15 10 9 9 11

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%

Under 0.53%

Over 1.591%

Under 1.59%

Over 2.574%

Under 2.526%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.7

Yellow Cards per Team

Alverca (home)

For1.9

Tondela (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Alverca — total shots (home)10.6

Tondela — total shots (away)9.1

Shots on Target

Alverca — on target (home)3.6

Tondela — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Alverca

Inside the box6.15

Outside the box3.5

Tondela

Inside the box6.38

Outside the box4.21

Player Shots Alverca

Figueiredo

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target15%

M. Milovanović

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target19%

Sandro Lima

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target3%

Tiago Rafael Fernandes Leiite

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target11%

Lincoln

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Tondela

Pedro Maranhão

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target15%

Rony Lopes

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target13%

Miro

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

M. Aïko

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target6%

J. Siebatcheu

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Alverca xG (home)1.2

Tondela xG (away)1.12

Average Possession

44.85% Possession 43.56%

Team Comparison Alverca vs Tondela

80% Pass accuracy 78.29%

364.94 Passes per match 338.06

0.07 Goals prevented 0.02

12.53 Fouls committed 14.47

2.88 Goalkeeper saves 3.38

1.22 Offsides 2.16

16.18 Tackles per match 17.56

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Alverca vs Tondela prediction analysis

Review Alverca vs Tondela with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights