Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: America de Cali vs Deportes Tolima

America de Cali vs Deportes Tolima prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-08-09 22:15
America de Cali
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Deportes Tolima
Away

Prediction Summary

1
49%
X
25%
2
26%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

America de Cali (Home)

Goals scored / match1.69
Goals conceded / match0.81
Over 2.5 rate23%
BTTS rate54%

Deportes Tolima (Away)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.04
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate44%

Team Form last 5 matches

America de Cali
WLDWD
Deportes Tolima
LLWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

85% +0.5 74%
58% +1.5 33%
23% +2.5 15%
4% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 0%
54% BTTS 44%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

America de Cali averages 1.69 goals scored at home, while Deportes Tolima averages 1.26 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
49%
Draw
25%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
53%

Head-to-Head last 4

Aug 2025 America de Cali 0 - 1 Deportes Tolima Away
Jun 2025 America de Cali 1 - 3 Deportes Tolima Away
Jun 2025 America de Cali(A) 1 - 1 Deportes Tolima Draw
Feb 2025 America de Cali(A) 0 - 0 Deportes Tolima Draw

In the last 4 meetings, America de Cali won 0, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

America de Cali — unbeaten run (home)11
America de Cali — scoring streak (home)8
Deportes Tolima — winless run (away)2
Deportes Tolima — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

America de Cali Win (1)49%
Draw (X)25%
Deportes Tolima Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

85% +0.5 74%
58% +1.5 33%
23% +2.5 15%
4% +3.5 4%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

15% -0.5 26%
42% -1.5 67%
77% -2.5 85%
96% -3.5 96%
100% -4.5 100%

America de Cali vs Deportes Tolima — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

America de Cali — scored (home)1.69
America de Cali — conceded (home)0.81
Deportes Tolima — scored (away)1.26
Deportes Tolima — conceded (away)1.04
Model expected combined goals2.69

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%
No47%

Rate per Team

America de Cali — BTTS matches (home)54%
Deportes Tolima — BTTS matches (away)44%
Combined (simple average)49%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%
Under 4.53%
Over 5.593%
Under 5.57%
Over 6.591%
Under 6.59%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.561%
Under 8.539%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

America de Cali (home)

Corners for6.2
Corners against3.7

Deportes Tolima (away)

Corners for3.8
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

America de Cali
7 7 4 6 9
Deportes Tolima
8 8 8 9 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.583%
Under 2.517%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

America de Cali (home)

For2.8

Deportes Tolima (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

America de Cali — total shots (home)16.0
Deportes Tolima — total shots (away)10.8

Shots on Target

America de Cali — on target (home)5.9
Deportes Tolima — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

America de Cali

Inside the box7.31
Outside the box6.38

Deportes Tolima

Inside the box7.02
Outside the box5.72

Player Shots America de Cali

D. Vergara
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
J. Quintero
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
Luis Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target26%
Pipe Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target17%
T. Palacios
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Deportes Tolima

G. Lencina
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target29%
G. Ramírez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Gonzalez
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target12%
J. P. Torres Patino
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Parra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

America de Cali xG (home)0.87
Deportes Tolima xG (away)1.26

Average Possession

52.4% Possession 53.69%

Team Comparison America de Cali vs Deportes Tolima

81.27% Pass accuracy 81.54%
393.67 Passes per match 409.22
0 Goals prevented 0
12.02 Fouls committed 10.46
3 Goalkeeper saves 2.5
1.86 Offsides 1.42
12.15 Tackles per match 11.89

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

America de Cali vs Deportes Tolima prediction analysis

Review America de Cali vs Deportes Tolima with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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