Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-06-20 01:15
America de Cali
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
35%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Independiente Medellin
Away

Prediction Summary

1
51%
X
28%
2
21%
Under 2.5
65%
BTTS No
61%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

America de Cali (Home)

Goals scored / match1.69
Goals conceded / match0.81
Over 2.5 rate23%
BTTS rate54%

Independiente Medellin (Away)

Goals scored / match1.33
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate19%
BTTS rate52%

Team Form last 5 matches

America de Cali
WLDWD
Independiente Medellin
WLDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

85% +0.5 70%
58% +1.5 33%
23% +2.5 19%
4% +3.5 7%
0% +4.5 4%
54% BTTS 52%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 35%. Model confidence is Medium.

America de Cali averages 1.69 goals scored at home, while Independiente Medellin averages 1.33 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
51%
Draw
28%
Away Win
21%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Yes
39%

Head-to-Head last 5

Dec 2025 America de Cali(A) 1 - 1 Independiente Medellin Draw
Nov 2025 America de Cali 2 - 1 Independiente Medellin Home
Nov 2025 America de Cali(A) 0 - 3 Independiente Medellin Away
Jun 2025 America de Cali 1 - 1 Independiente Medellin Draw
Jun 2025 America de Cali(A) 1 - 1 Independiente Medellin Draw

In the last 5 meetings, America de Cali won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

America de Cali — unbeaten run (home)11
America de Cali — scoring streak (home)8
Independiente Medellin — winless run (away)3
Independiente Medellin — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

America de Cali Win (1)51%
Draw (X)28%
Independiente Medellin Win (2)21%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

85% +0.5 70%
58% +1.5 33%
23% +2.5 19%
4% +3.5 7%
0% +4.5 4%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

15% -0.5 30%
42% -1.5 67%
77% -2.5 81%
96% -3.5 93%
100% -4.5 96%

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

America de Cali — scored (home)1.69
America de Cali — conceded (home)0.81
Independiente Medellin — scored (away)1.33
Independiente Medellin — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.08

Both Teams To Score

Yes39%
No61%

Rate per Team

America de Cali — BTTS matches (home)54%
Independiente Medellin — BTTS matches (away)52%
Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.587%
Under 5.513%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.566%
Under 7.534%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.542%
Under 9.558%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

America de Cali (home)

Corners for6.2
Corners against3.7

Independiente Medellin (away)

Corners for5.3
Corners against3.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

America de Cali
7 7 4 6 9
Independiente Medellin
12 7 4 3 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.591%
Under 2.59%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)6

Yellow Cards per Team

America de Cali (home)

For2.8

Independiente Medellin (away)

For3.1

Shots per Game

America de Cali — total shots (home)16.0
Independiente Medellin — total shots (away)14.1

Shots on Target

America de Cali — on target (home)5.9
Independiente Medellin — on target (away)4.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

America de Cali

Inside the box7.31
Outside the box6.38

Independiente Medellin

Inside the box7.78
Outside the box8.04

Player Shots America de Cali

D. Vergara
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
J. Quintero
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
Luis Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target26%
Pipe Gómez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target17%
T. Palacios
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Independiente Medellin

B. Leon
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target38%
F. Fydriszewski
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target21%
L. Berrío
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target16%
J. Barrera
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target5%
F. Chaverra
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

America de Cali xG (home)0.87
Independiente Medellin xG (away)1.4

Average Possession

52.4% Possession 56.72%

Team Comparison America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin

81.27% Pass accuracy 80.91%
393.67 Passes per match 412.61
0 Goals prevented 0
12.02 Fouls committed 11.06
3 Goalkeeper saves 2.41
1.86 Offsides 1.26
12.15 Tackles per match 10.46

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin prediction analysis

Review America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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