What markets are included in the Arouca vs Casa Pia prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Arouca vs Casa Pia prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Arouca vs Casa Pia

Arouca vs Casa Pia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-05-04 17:00

Arouca

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

40%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Casa Pia

Away

Prediction Summary

37%

28%

35%

Under 2.5

60%

BTTS No

53%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Arouca (Home)

Goals scored / match0.94

Goals conceded / match1.12

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate47%

Casa Pia (Away)

Goals scored / match1

Goals conceded / match1.47

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Arouca

WDDLW

Casa Pia

LWDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 65%

12% +1.5 29%

6% +2.5 6%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.

Arouca averages 0.94 goals scored at home, while Casa Pia averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength

60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

37%

Draw

28%

Away Win

35%

Over 2.5

40%

BTTS Yes

47%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Arouca(A) 2 - 3 Casa Pia Away

Sep 2025 Arouca 0 - 2 Casa Pia Away

May 2025 Arouca 0 - 0 Casa Pia Draw

Dec 2024 Arouca(A) 1 - 3 Casa Pia Away

Feb 2024 Arouca(A) 0 - 1 Casa Pia Away

In the last 5 meetings, Arouca won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Arouca — unbeaten run (home)3

Arouca — scoring streak (home)1

Casa Pia — winless run (away)8

Casa Pia — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Arouca Win (1)37%

Draw (X)28%

Casa Pia Win (2)35%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 65%

12% +1.5 29%

6% +2.5 6%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 35%

88% -1.5 71%

94% -2.5 94%

94% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Arouca vs Casa Pia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Arouca — scored (home)0.94

Arouca — conceded (home)1.12

Casa Pia — scored (away)1

Casa Pia — conceded (away)1.47

Model expected combined goals2.3

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%

No53%

Rate per Team

Arouca — BTTS matches (home)47%

Casa Pia — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.588%

Under 5.512%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.568%

Under 8.532%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.544%

Under 10.556%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Arouca (home)

Corners for5.4

Corners against4.9

Casa Pia (away)

Corners for3.3

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Arouca

8 8 5 5 13

Casa Pia

7 8 5 9 17

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.588%

Under 1.512%

Over 2.585%

Under 2.515%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Arouca (home)

For2.4

Casa Pia (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Arouca — total shots (home)11.6

Casa Pia — total shots (away)8.1

Shots on Target

Arouca — on target (home)3.8

Casa Pia — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Arouca

Inside the box6.5

Outside the box5.21

Casa Pia

Inside the box5.59

Outside the box3.76

Player Shots Arouca

V. Morozov

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target18%

D. Nandín

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Ivo Rodrigues

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target9%

Jason

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target16%

Pablo Gozálbez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Casa Pia

Max Svensson

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target17%

Nuno Moreira

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target19%

Henrique Pereira

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target13%

+1.5 On Target4%

Cassiano

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target58%

+1.5 On Target12%

Leonardo Lelo

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target19%

+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Arouca xG (home)1.15

Casa Pia xG (away)0.9

Average Possession

52.59% Possession 46.65%

Team Comparison Arouca vs Casa Pia

80.94% Pass accuracy 76.68%

421.68 Passes per match 363.74

-0.03 Goals prevented 0.09

14.65 Fouls committed 14.82

2.82 Goalkeeper saves 3.64

1.88 Offsides 1.32

16.32 Tackles per match 14.71

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Arouca vs Casa Pia prediction analysis

Review Arouca vs Casa Pia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights