What markets are included in the Arouca vs Estoril prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Arouca vs Estoril prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Arouca vs Estoril

Arouca vs Estoril prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-03-16 15:30

Arouca

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

49%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-1

Estoril

Away

Prediction Summary

38%

26%

36%

Under 2.5

51%

BTTS Yes

53%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Arouca (Home)

Goals scored / match0.94

Goals conceded / match1.12

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate47%

Estoril (Away)

Goals scored / match1.47

Goals conceded / match1.76

Over 2.5 rate24%

BTTS rate59%

Team Form last 5 matches

Arouca

WDDLW

Estoril

WDLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 65%

12% +1.5 53%

6% +2.5 24%

6% +3.5 6%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 59%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.

Arouca averages 0.94 goals scored at home, while Estoril averages 1.47 goals scored away.

Model Strength

53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

38%

Draw

26%

Away Win

36%

Over 2.5

49%

BTTS Yes

53%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Arouca 3 - 2 Estoril Home

Nov 2025 Arouca(A) 3 - 4 Estoril Away

Mar 2025 Arouca 1 - 1 Estoril Draw

Oct 2024 Arouca(A) 1 - 4 Estoril Away

Jan 2024 Arouca(A) 2 - 1 Estoril Home

In the last 5 meetings, Arouca won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Arouca — unbeaten run (home)3

Arouca — scoring streak (home)1

Estoril — winless run (away)1

Estoril — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Arouca Win (1)38%

Draw (X)26%

Estoril Win (2)36%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 65%

12% +1.5 53%

6% +2.5 24%

6% +3.5 6%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 35%

88% -1.5 47%

94% -2.5 76%

94% -3.5 94%

100% -4.5 100%

Arouca vs Estoril — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Arouca — scored (home)0.94

Arouca — conceded (home)1.12

Estoril — scored (away)1.47

Estoril — conceded (away)1.76

Model expected combined goals2.63

Both Teams To Score

Yes53%

No47%

Rate per Team

Arouca — BTTS matches (home)47%

Estoril — BTTS matches (away)59%

Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.591%

Under 5.59%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.565%

Under 8.535%

Over 9.553%

Under 9.547%

Over 10.544%

Under 10.556%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Arouca (home)

Corners for5.4

Corners against4.9

Estoril (away)

Corners for3.8

Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Arouca

8 8 5 5 13

Estoril

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.585%

Under 1.515%

Over 2.577%

Under 2.523%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Arouca (home)

For2.4

Estoril (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Arouca — total shots (home)11.6

Estoril — total shots (away)9.7

Shots on Target

Arouca — on target (home)3.8

Estoril — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Arouca

Inside the box6.5

Outside the box5.21

Estoril

Inside the box5.38

Outside the box4.53

Player Shots Arouca

V. Morozov

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target18%

D. Nandín

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Ivo Rodrigues

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target9%

Jason

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target16%

Pablo Gozálbez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Estoril

André Lacximicant

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target11%

Xeka

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target14%

+1.5 On Target7%

Y. Begraoui

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target12%

Fabrício Garcia

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target17%

+1.5 On Target4%

K. Boma

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target24%

+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Arouca xG (home)1.15

Estoril xG (away)1.17

Average Possession

52.59% Possession 49.06%

Team Comparison Arouca vs Estoril

80.94% Pass accuracy 79.91%

421.68 Passes per match 404.68

-0.03 Goals prevented -0.05

14.65 Fouls committed 15.88

2.82 Goalkeeper saves 2.79

1.88 Offsides 1.24

16.32 Tackles per match 15.62

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Arouca vs Estoril prediction analysis

Review Arouca vs Estoril with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights