What markets are included in the Arouca vs Guimaraes prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Arouca vs Guimaraes prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Arouca vs Guimaraes

Arouca vs Guimaraes prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2024-08-12 19:15

Arouca

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

35%

Confidence

Medium

Score

0-1

Guimaraes

Away

Prediction Summary

33%

30%

37%

Under 2.5

65%

BTTS No

58%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Arouca (Home)

Goals scored / match0.94

Goals conceded / match1.12

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate47%

Guimaraes (Away)

Goals scored / match1.06

Goals conceded / match1.06

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Arouca

WDDLW

Guimaraes

LLWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 65%

12% +1.5 41%

6% +2.5 0%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 35%. Model confidence is Medium.

Arouca averages 0.94 goals scored at home, while Guimaraes averages 1.06 goals scored away.

Model Strength

65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

33%

Draw

30%

Away Win

37%

Over 2.5

35%

BTTS Yes

42%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Arouca 3 - 2 Guimaraes Home

Aug 2025 Arouca(A) 1 - 1 Guimaraes Draw

Jan 2025 Arouca(A) 2 - 2 Guimaraes Draw

Aug 2024 Arouca 0 - 1 Guimaraes Away

May 2024 Arouca 1 - 3 Guimaraes Away

In the last 5 meetings, Arouca won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Arouca — unbeaten run (home)3

Arouca — scoring streak (home)1

Guimaraes — winless run (away)1

Guimaraes — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Arouca Win (1)33%

Draw (X)30%

Guimaraes Win (2)37%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 65%

12% +1.5 41%

6% +2.5 0%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 35%

88% -1.5 59%

94% -2.5 100%

94% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Arouca vs Guimaraes — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Arouca — scored (home)0.94

Arouca — conceded (home)1.12

Guimaraes — scored (away)1.06

Guimaraes — conceded (away)1.06

Model expected combined goals2.09

Both Teams To Score

Yes42%

No58%

Rate per Team

Arouca — BTTS matches (home)47%

Guimaraes — BTTS matches (away)47%

Combined (simple average)47%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.591%

Under 5.59%

Over 6.585%

Under 6.515%

Over 7.577%

Under 7.523%

Over 8.571%

Under 8.529%

Over 9.556%

Under 9.544%

Over 10.547%

Under 10.553%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Arouca (home)

Corners for5.4

Corners against4.9

Guimaraes (away)

Corners for5.5

Corners against4.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Arouca

8 8 5 5 13

Guimaraes

10 10 9 19 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.591%

Under 1.59%

Over 2.588%

Under 2.512%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Arouca (home)

For2.4

Guimaraes (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Arouca — total shots (home)11.6

Guimaraes — total shots (away)11.6

Shots on Target

Arouca — on target (home)3.8

Guimaraes — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Arouca

Inside the box6.5

Outside the box5.21

Guimaraes

Inside the box8.26

Outside the box5

Player Shots Arouca

V. Morozov

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target18%

D. Nandín

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Ivo Rodrigues

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target9%

Jason

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target16%

Pablo Gozálbez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Guimaraes

Ricardo Mangas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

Vando Félix

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target13%

+1.5 On Target6%

T. Borevković

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target7%

+1.5 On Target4%

Gustavo

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target14%

Nuno Santos

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target39%

+1.5 On Target15%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Arouca xG (home)1.15

Guimaraes xG (away)1.22

Average Possession

52.59% Possession 56.91%

Team Comparison Arouca vs Guimaraes

80.94% Pass accuracy 83.32%

421.68 Passes per match 461.03

-0.03 Goals prevented -0.08

14.65 Fouls committed 14.59

2.82 Goalkeeper saves 1.94

1.88 Offsides 1.62

16.32 Tackles per match 15.53

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Arouca vs Guimaraes prediction analysis

Review Arouca vs Guimaraes with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights