Prediction Analysis: Arouca vs Moreirense
Arouca vs Moreirense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primeira Liga
2026-08-17
19:15
Arouca
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Moreirense
Away
Prediction Summary
1
43%
X
24%
2
33%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Arouca (Home)
Goals scored / match1.59
Goals conceded / match1.76
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate59%
Moreirense (Away)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Arouca
WWDLW
Moreirense
DLWLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
76%
+0.5
65%
47%
+1.5
29%
35%
+2.5
6%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
59%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.
Arouca averages 1.59 goals scored at home, while Moreirense averages 1 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
43%
Draw
24%
Away Win
33%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Arouca(A)
1 - 0
Moreirense
Home
Nov 2025
Arouca
0 - 2
Moreirense
Away
Jan 2025
Arouca
1 - 0
Moreirense
Home
Aug 2024
Arouca(A)
1 - 3
Moreirense
Away
Mar 2024
Arouca(A)
0 - 1
Moreirense
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Arouca won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Arouca — unbeaten run (home)4
Arouca — scoring streak (home)10
Moreirense — winless run (away)5
Moreirense — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Arouca Win (1)43%
Draw (X)24%
Moreirense Win (2)33%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
76%
+0.5
65%
47%
+1.5
29%
35%
+2.5
6%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
24%
-0.5
35%
53%
-1.5
71%
65%
-2.5
94%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Arouca vs Moreirense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Arouca — scored (home)1.59
Arouca — conceded (home)1.76
Moreirense — scored (away)1
Moreirense — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals3
Both Teams To Score
Yes60%
No40%
Rate per Team
Arouca — BTTS matches (home)59%
Moreirense — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Arouca (home)
Corners for4.1
Corners against5.9
Moreirense (away)
Corners for3.3
Corners against4.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Arouca
7
9
11
8
11
Moreirense
6
11
5
9
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.591%
Under 2.59%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.6
Yellow Cards per Team
Arouca (home)
For3.4
Moreirense (away)
For2.7
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.566%
Under 19.534%
Over 22.552%
Under 22.548%
Over 25.538%
Under 25.562%
Expected total shots23.80
Arouca
Shots Over 9.571%
Shots Over 11.555%
Shots Over 13.540%
Expected shots12.78
On Target Over 3.562%
On Target Over 4.545%
On Target Over 5.531%
Expected on target4.50
Moreirense
Shots Over 9.559%
Shots Over 11.542%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots11.02
On Target Over 3.551%
On Target Over 4.534%
On Target Over 5.521%
Expected on target3.81
Shots per Game
Arouca — total shots (home)10.8
Moreirense — total shots (away)8.5
Shots on Target
Arouca — on target (home)4.2
Moreirense — on target (away)3.4
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Arouca
Inside the box6.15
Outside the box4.53
Moreirense
Inside the box5.26
Outside the box3.65
Player Shots Arouca
Barbero
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target13%
A. Trezza
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target16%
N. Djouahra
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target9%
Lee Hyun-Ju
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target3%
D. Nandín
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target5%
Player Shots Moreirense
Guilherme Schettine
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target40%
Bernardo Martins
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Alan
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target15%
N. John
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target7%
Diogo Travassos
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target7%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Arouca xG (home)1
Moreirense xG (away)0.93
Average Possession
50.21%
Possession
49.56%
Team Comparison Arouca vs Moreirense
81.91%
Pass accuracy
82.47%
413.24
Passes per match
430.18
-0.24
Goals prevented
-0.01
13.82
Fouls committed
13.94
2.68
Goalkeeper saves
3.09
1.48
Offsides
1.23
14.26
Tackles per match
14.21
League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Arouca vs Moreirense prediction analysis
Review Arouca vs Moreirense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights