What markets are included in the Arouca vs Nacional prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Arouca vs Nacional prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Arouca vs Nacional

Arouca vs Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2024-08-25 14:30

Arouca

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

32%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Nacional

Away

Prediction Summary

43%

31%

26%

Under 2.5

68%

BTTS No

62%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Arouca (Home)

Goals scored / match0.94

Goals conceded / match1.12

Over 2.5 rate6%

BTTS rate47%

Nacional (Away)

Goals scored / match0.53

Goals conceded / match1.35

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate29%

Team Form last 5 matches

Arouca

WDDLW

Nacional

LDLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 41%

12% +1.5 12%

6% +2.5 0%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

47% BTTS 29%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 32%. Model confidence is Medium.

Arouca averages 0.94 goals scored at home, while Nacional averages 0.53 goals scored away.

Model Strength

68%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

43%

Draw

31%

Away Win

26%

Over 2.5

32%

BTTS Yes

38%

Head-to-Head last 4

Feb 2026 Arouca 3 - 0 Nacional Home

Sep 2025 Arouca(A) 2 - 1 Nacional Home

Feb 2025 Arouca(A) 2 - 1 Nacional Home

Aug 2024 Arouca 1 - 0 Nacional Home

In the last 4 meetings, Arouca won 4, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Arouca — unbeaten run (home)3

Arouca — scoring streak (home)1

Nacional — winless run (away)2

Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Arouca Win (1)43%

Draw (X)31%

Nacional Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 41%

12% +1.5 12%

6% +2.5 0%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 59%

88% -1.5 88%

94% -2.5 100%

94% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Arouca vs Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Arouca — scored (home)0.94

Arouca — conceded (home)1.12

Nacional — scored (away)0.53

Nacional — conceded (away)1.35

Model expected combined goals1.97

Both Teams To Score

Yes38%

No62%

Rate per Team

Arouca — BTTS matches (home)47%

Nacional — BTTS matches (away)29%

Combined (simple average)38%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.597%

Under 5.53%

Over 6.591%

Under 6.59%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.568%

Under 8.532%

Over 9.562%

Under 9.538%

Over 10.553%

Under 10.547%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Arouca (home)

Corners for5.4

Corners against4.9

Nacional (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Arouca

8 8 5 5 13

Nacional

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.585%

Under 1.515%

Over 2.574%

Under 2.526%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Arouca (home)

For2.4

Nacional (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Arouca — total shots (home)11.6

Nacional — total shots (away)12.3

Shots on Target

Arouca — on target (home)3.8

Nacional — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Arouca

Inside the box6.5

Outside the box5.21

Nacional

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box6.15

Player Shots Arouca

V. Morozov

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target18%

D. Nandín

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Ivo Rodrigues

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target18%

+1.5 On Target9%

Jason

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target16%

Pablo Gozálbez

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target12%

Player Shots Nacional

Dudu

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target14%

Paulinho Bóia

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

N. Thomas

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target11%

Daniel Penha

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target13%

Rúben Macedo

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Arouca xG (home)1.15

Nacional xG (away)1.03

Average Possession

52.59% Possession 47.29%

Team Comparison Arouca vs Nacional

80.94% Pass accuracy 76.94%

421.68 Passes per match 339.32

-0.03 Goals prevented 0

14.65 Fouls committed 13.5

2.82 Goalkeeper saves 3.15

1.88 Offsides 1.65

16.32 Tackles per match 15.94

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Arouca vs Nacional prediction analysis

Review Arouca vs Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights