Prediction Analysis: Arsenal vs Paris Saint Germain
Arsenal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Arsenal
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
46%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Paris Saint Germain
Away
Prediction Summary
1
45%
X
26%
2
29%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Arsenal (Home)
Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match0.43
Over 2.5 rate43%
BTTS rate14%
Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match0.88
Over 2.5 rate38%
BTTS rate25%
Team Form last 5 matches
Arsenal
LLWWD
Paris Saint Germain
WWWLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
86%
+0.5
75%
71%
+1.5
50%
43%
+2.5
38%
0%
+3.5
13%
0%
+4.5
0%
14%
BTTS
25%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 46%. Model confidence is Low.
Arsenal averages 2 goals scored at home, while Paris Saint Germain averages 1.75 goals scored away.
Model Strength
54%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
45%
Draw
26%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
Head-to-Head last 4
May 2026
Arsenal(A)
1 - 1
Paris Saint Germain
Draw
May 2025
Arsenal(A)
1 - 2
Paris Saint Germain
Away
Apr 2025
Arsenal
0 - 1
Paris Saint Germain
Away
Oct 2024
Arsenal
2 - 0
Paris Saint Germain
Home
In the last 4 meetings, Arsenal won 1, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Arsenal — unbeaten run (home)0
Arsenal — scoring streak (home)0
Paris Saint Germain — winless run (away)0
Paris Saint Germain — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Arsenal Win (1)45%
Draw (X)26%
Paris Saint Germain Win (2)29%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
86%
+0.5
75%
71%
+1.5
50%
43%
+2.5
38%
0%
+3.5
13%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
14%
-0.5
25%
29%
-1.5
50%
57%
-2.5
62%
100%
-3.5
87%
100%
-4.5
100%
Arsenal vs Paris Saint Germain — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Arsenal — scored (home)2
Arsenal — conceded (home)0.43
Paris Saint Germain — scored (away)1.75
Paris Saint Germain — conceded (away)0.88
Model expected combined goals2.53
Both Teams To Score
Yes51%
No49%
Rate per Team
Arsenal — BTTS matches (home)14%
Paris Saint Germain — BTTS matches (away)25%
Combined (simple average)19.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.580%
Under 4.520%
Over 5.580%
Under 5.520%
Over 6.560%
Under 6.540%
Over 7.554%
Under 7.546%
Over 8.540%
Under 8.560%
Over 9.526%
Under 9.574%
Over 10.514%
Under 10.586%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Arsenal (home)
Corners for4.7
Corners against2.9
Paris Saint Germain (away)
Corners for4.5
Corners against4.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Arsenal
9
8
14
4
8
Paris Saint Germain
10
10
4
8
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Arsenal (home)
For1.9
Paris Saint Germain (away)
For1.4
Shots per Game
Arsenal — total shots (home)11.9
Paris Saint Germain — total shots (away)13.9
Shots on Target
Arsenal — on target (home)6.4
Paris Saint Germain — on target (away)5.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Arsenal
Inside the box10.29
Outside the box2.79
Paris Saint Germain
Inside the box12.71
Outside the box6.18
Player Shots Arsenal
R. Sterling
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
Gabriel Jesus
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
B. Saka
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target89%
+1.5 On Target56%
D. Rice
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
E. Nwaneri
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target29%
Player Shots Paris Saint Germain
O. Dembélé
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target87%
+1.5 On Target53%
D. Doué
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target31%
Gonçalo Ramos
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target17%
K. Kvaratskhelia
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target11%
A. Hakimi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target24%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Arsenal xG (home)1.92
Paris Saint Germain xG (away)2.13
Average Possession
51%
Possession
61.65%
Team Comparison Arsenal vs Paris Saint Germain
85.29%
Pass accuracy
88.18%
445.5
Passes per match
625.88
0.25
Goals prevented
0.19
11.14
Fouls committed
9.12
2.43
Goalkeeper saves
2.47
1.64
Offsides
1.59
14.86
Tackles per match
19.65
League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Arsenal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction analysis
Review Arsenal vs Paris Saint Germain with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights