Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: AS Roma vs Atalanta

AS Roma vs Atalanta prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2026-09-06 16:30
AS Roma
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
42%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Atalanta
Away

Prediction Summary

1
48%
X
27%
2
25%
+2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
46%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

AS Roma (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74
Goals conceded / match0.53
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate26%

Atalanta (Away)

Goals scored / match1.37
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

AS Roma
WWWWW
Atalanta
DLWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 89%
58% +1.5 32%
26% +2.5 16%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
26% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 42%. Model confidence is Medium.

AS Roma averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Atalanta averages 1.37 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
48%
Draw
27%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
46%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 AS Roma 1 - 1 Atalanta Draw
Jan 2026 AS Roma(A) 0 - 1 Atalanta Away
May 2025 AS Roma(A) 1 - 2 Atalanta Away
Dec 2024 AS Roma 0 - 2 Atalanta Away
May 2024 AS Roma(A) 1 - 2 Atalanta Away

In the last 5 meetings, AS Roma won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

AS Roma — unbeaten run (home)12
AS Roma — scoring streak (home)12
Atalanta — winless run (away)1
Atalanta — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

AS Roma Win (1)48%
Draw (X)27%
Atalanta Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 89%
58% +1.5 32%
26% +2.5 16%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 11%
42% -1.5 68%
74% -2.5 84%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

AS Roma vs Atalanta — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

AS Roma — scored (home)1.74
AS Roma — conceded (home)0.53
Atalanta — scored (away)1.37
Atalanta — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.37

Both Teams To Score

Yes46%
No54%

Rate per Team

AS Roma — BTTS matches (home)26%
Atalanta — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)44.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

AS Roma (home)

Corners for5.7
Corners against2.8

Atalanta (away)

Corners for4.5
Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

AS Roma
14 9 9 11 12
Atalanta
10 8 4 7 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6

Yellow Cards per Team

AS Roma (home)

For1.6

Atalanta (away)

For2.3

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.571%
Under 19.529%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.543%
Under 25.557%
Expected total shots24.86

AS Roma

Shots Over 9.578%
Shots Over 11.564%
Shots Over 13.549%
Expected shots13.87
On Target Over 3.566%
On Target Over 4.549%
On Target Over 5.534%
Expected on target4.75

Atalanta

Shots Over 9.559%
Shots Over 11.542%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots10.99
On Target Over 3.551%
On Target Over 4.533%
On Target Over 5.520%
Expected on target3.79

Shots per Game

AS Roma — total shots (home)15.3
Atalanta — total shots (away)12.5

Shots on Target

AS Roma — on target (home)5.2
Atalanta — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

AS Roma

Inside the box9.74
Outside the box3.5

Atalanta

Inside the box9.79
Outside the box5

Player Shots AS Roma

D. Malen
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target89%
+1.5 On Target56%
E. Ferguson
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target38%
P. Dybala
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target23%
M. Soulé
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target9%
L. Pellegrini
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Atalanta

N. Krstović
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target27%
G. Scamacca
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
G. Raspadori
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
A. Lookman
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
C. De Ketelaere
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

AS Roma xG (home)1.45
Atalanta xG (away)1.52

Average Possession

56.29% Possession 55.13%

Team Comparison AS Roma vs Atalanta

83.32% Pass accuracy 84.05%
487.97 Passes per match 493.89
-0.02 Goals prevented 0.26
13.76 Fouls committed 11.84
2.82 Goalkeeper saves 3.11
1.68 Offsides 1.97
15.11 Tackles per match 15.61

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

AS Roma vs Atalanta prediction analysis

Review AS Roma vs Atalanta with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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