What markets are included in the AS Roma vs Fiorentina prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the AS Roma vs Fiorentina prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: AS Roma vs Fiorentina

AS Roma vs Fiorentina prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions

Serie A 2026-08-23 16:30

AS Roma

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

44%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Fiorentina

Away

Prediction Summary

57%

25%

18%

+2.5 Goals

44%

BTTS

44%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

AS Roma (Home)

Goals scored / match1.74

Goals conceded / match0.53

Over 2.5 rate26%

BTTS rate26%

Fiorentina (Away)

Goals scored / match1.05

Goals conceded / match1.53

Over 2.5 rate5%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

AS Roma

WWWWW

Fiorentina

DWDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 63%

58% +1.5 32%

26% +2.5 5%

5% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

26% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

AS Roma averages 1.74 goals scored at home, while Fiorentina averages 1.05 goals scored away.

Model Strength

57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

57%

Draw

25%

Away Win

18%

Over 2.5

44%

BTTS Yes

44%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 AS Roma 4 - 0 Fiorentina Home

Oct 2025 AS Roma(A) 2 - 1 Fiorentina Home

May 2025 AS Roma 1 - 0 Fiorentina Home

Oct 2024 AS Roma(A) 1 - 5 Fiorentina Away

Mar 2024 AS Roma(A) 2 - 2 Fiorentina Draw

In the last 5 meetings, AS Roma won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

AS Roma — unbeaten run (home)12

AS Roma — scoring streak (home)12

Fiorentina — winless run (away)0

Fiorentina — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

AS Roma Win (1)57%

Draw (X)25%

Fiorentina Win (2)18%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 63%

58% +1.5 32%

26% +2.5 5%

5% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 37%

42% -1.5 68%

74% -2.5 95%

95% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 100%

AS Roma vs Fiorentina — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

AS Roma — scored (home)1.74

AS Roma — conceded (home)0.53

Fiorentina — scored (away)1.05

Fiorentina — conceded (away)1.53

Model expected combined goals2.42

Both Teams To Score

Yes44%

No56%

Rate per Team

AS Roma — BTTS matches (home)26%

Fiorentina — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)39.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.543%

Under 9.557%

Over 10.533%

Under 10.567%

Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

AS Roma (home)

Corners for5.7

Corners against2.8

Fiorentina (away)

Corners for3.4

Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

AS Roma

14 9 9 11 12

Fiorentina

11 9 7 8 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.589%

Under 1.511%

Over 2.579%

Under 2.521%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

AS Roma (home)

For1.6

Fiorentina (away)

For2.3

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.569%

Under 19.531%

Over 22.555%

Under 22.545%

Over 25.541%

Under 25.559%

Expected total shots24.42

AS Roma

Shots Over 9.579%

Shots Over 11.566%

Shots Over 13.551%

Expected shots14.15

On Target Over 3.567%

On Target Over 4.550%

On Target Over 5.535%

Expected on target4.81

Fiorentina

Shots Over 9.553%

Shots Over 11.535%

Shots Over 13.521%

Expected shots10.27

On Target Over 3.544%

On Target Over 4.528%

On Target Over 5.516%

Expected on target3.45

Shots per Game

AS Roma — total shots (home)15.3

Fiorentina — total shots (away)10.1

Shots on Target

AS Roma — on target (home)5.2

Fiorentina — on target (away)2.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

AS Roma

Inside the box9.74

Outside the box3.5

Fiorentina

Inside the box8.05

Outside the box4.82

Player Shots AS Roma

D. Malen

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target89%

+1.5 On Target56%

E. Ferguson

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target38%

P. Dybala

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target59%

+1.5 On Target23%

M. Soulé

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target9%

L. Pellegrini

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Fiorentina

M. Kean

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target27%

R. Mandragora

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target3%

R. Piccoli

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target9%

A. Guðmundsson

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target9%

F. Parisi

Shots on Target/Game0.3

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

AS Roma xG (home)1.45

Fiorentina xG (away)1.4

Average Possession

56.29% Possession 50.97%

Team Comparison AS Roma vs Fiorentina

83.32% Pass accuracy 83.89%

487.97 Passes per match 423.61

-0.02 Goals prevented 0.06

13.76 Fouls committed 12.5

2.82 Goalkeeper saves 3.34

1.68 Offsides 1.94

15.11 Tackles per match 12.26

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

AS Roma vs Fiorentina prediction analysis

Review AS Roma vs Fiorentina with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights