Prediction Analysis: Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2026-08-31
19:00
Aston Villa
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
49%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Arsenal
Away
Prediction Summary
1
34%
X
26%
2
39%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Aston Villa (Home)
Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1.16
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate53%
Arsenal (Away)
Goals scored / match1.58
Goals conceded / match0.84
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Aston Villa
WWDLL
Arsenal
WWWWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
79%
+0.5
89%
47%
+1.5
42%
26%
+2.5
16%
16%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
0%
53%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.
Aston Villa averages 1.68 goals scored at home, while Arsenal averages 1.58 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
34%
Draw
26%
Away Win
39%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
Head-to-Head last 5
Dec 2025
Aston Villa(A)
1 - 4
Arsenal
Away
Dec 2025
Aston Villa
2 - 1
Arsenal
Home
Jan 2025
Aston Villa(A)
2 - 2
Arsenal
Draw
Aug 2024
Aston Villa
0 - 2
Arsenal
Away
Apr 2024
Aston Villa(A)
2 - 0
Arsenal
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Aston Villa won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Aston Villa — unbeaten run (home)1
Aston Villa — scoring streak (home)7
Arsenal — winless run (away)0
Arsenal — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Aston Villa Win (1)34%
Draw (X)26%
Arsenal Win (2)39%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
79%
+0.5
89%
47%
+1.5
42%
26%
+2.5
16%
16%
+3.5
11%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
21%
-0.5
11%
53%
-1.5
58%
74%
-2.5
84%
84%
-3.5
89%
100%
-4.5
100%
Aston Villa vs Arsenal — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Aston Villa — scored (home)1.68
Aston Villa — conceded (home)1.16
Arsenal — scored (away)1.58
Arsenal — conceded (away)0.84
Model expected combined goals2.63
Both Teams To Score
Yes53%
No47%
Rate per Team
Aston Villa — BTTS matches (home)53%
Arsenal — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Aston Villa (home)
Corners for5.5
Corners against4.9
Arsenal (away)
Corners for5.5
Corners against3.8
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Aston Villa
7
10
10
13
13
Arsenal
9
7
7
6
7
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.7
Yellow Cards per Team
Aston Villa (home)
For1.4
Arsenal (away)
For1.9
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.570%
Under 19.530%
Over 22.555%
Under 22.545%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.54
Aston Villa
Shots Over 9.570%
Shots Over 11.554%
Shots Over 13.539%
Expected shots12.53
On Target Over 3.559%
On Target Over 4.542%
On Target Over 5.527%
Expected on target4.27
Arsenal
Shots Over 9.567%
Shots Over 11.550%
Shots Over 13.535%
Expected shots12.02
On Target Over 3.559%
On Target Over 4.542%
On Target Over 5.527%
Expected on target4.29
Shots per Game
Aston Villa — total shots (home)13.7
Arsenal — total shots (away)13.0
Shots on Target
Aston Villa — on target (home)4.8
Arsenal — on target (away)4.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Aston Villa
Inside the box8.03
Outside the box4.68
Arsenal
Inside the box10.66
Outside the box3.87
Player Shots Aston Villa
O. Watkins
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target27%
M. Rogers
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target24%
D. Malen
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. McGinn
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target3%
E. Guessand
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
Player Shots Arsenal
B. Saka
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target23%
Gabriel Jesus
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target14%
V. Gyökeres
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target17%
E. Eze
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Trossard
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target16%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa xG (home)1.27
Arsenal xG (away)1.72
Average Possession
53.53%
Possession
56.16%
Team Comparison Aston Villa vs Arsenal
84.76%
Pass accuracy
83.76%
450.05
Passes per match
470.92
-0.13
Goals prevented
-0.17
9.79
Fouls committed
10.29
3
Goalkeeper saves
1.63
1.14
Offsides
1.85
15.42
Tackles per match
15.84
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction and preview
Preview Aston Villa vs Arsenal with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights