Prediction Analysis: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Premier League
2026-01-03
12:30
Aston Villa
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
40%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Nottingham Forest
Away
Prediction Summary
1
57%
X
25%
2
17%
Under 2.5
60%
BTTS No
59%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Aston Villa (Home)
Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match1.16
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate53%
Nottingham Forest (Away)
Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Aston Villa
WWDLL
Nottingham Forest
DLDWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
79%
+0.5
74%
47%
+1.5
42%
26%
+2.5
21%
16%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
5%
53%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 40%. Model confidence is Medium.
Aston Villa averages 1.68 goals scored at home, while Nottingham Forest averages 1.47 goals scored away.
Model Strength
60%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
57%
Draw
25%
Away Win
17%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Yes
41%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Aston Villa
4 - 0
Nottingham Forest
Home
Apr 2026
Aston Villa(A)
0 - 1
Nottingham Forest
Away
Apr 2026
Aston Villa(A)
1 - 1
Nottingham Forest
Draw
Jan 2026
Aston Villa
3 - 1
Nottingham Forest
Home
Apr 2025
Aston Villa
2 - 1
Nottingham Forest
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Aston Villa won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Aston Villa — unbeaten run (home)1
Aston Villa — scoring streak (home)7
Nottingham Forest — winless run (away)1
Nottingham Forest — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Aston Villa Win (1)57%
Draw (X)25%
Nottingham Forest Win (2)17%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
79%
+0.5
74%
47%
+1.5
42%
26%
+2.5
21%
16%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
5%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
21%
-0.5
26%
53%
-1.5
58%
74%
-2.5
79%
84%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
95%
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Aston Villa — scored (home)1.68
Aston Villa — conceded (home)1.16
Nottingham Forest — scored (away)1.47
Nottingham Forest — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.28
Both Teams To Score
Yes41%
No59%
Rate per Team
Aston Villa — BTTS matches (home)53%
Nottingham Forest — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)50%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.592%
Under 6.58%
Over 7.590%
Under 7.510%
Over 8.582%
Under 8.518%
Over 9.564%
Under 9.536%
Over 10.545%
Under 10.555%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.40
Per-Team Corners own matches
Aston Villa (home)
Corners for5.5
Corners against4.9
Nottingham Forest (away)
Corners for4.4
Corners against5.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Aston Villa
7
10
10
13
13
Nottingham Forest
9
11
3
13
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.9
Yellow Cards per Team
Aston Villa (home)
For1.4
Nottingham Forest (away)
For1.9
Shots per Game
Aston Villa — total shots (home)13.7
Nottingham Forest — total shots (away)10.1
Shots on Target
Aston Villa — on target (home)4.8
Nottingham Forest — on target (away)4.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Aston Villa
Inside the box8.03
Outside the box4.68
Nottingham Forest
Inside the box7.79
Outside the box4.79
Player Shots Aston Villa
O. Watkins
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target27%
M. Rogers
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target24%
D. Malen
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. McGinn
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target3%
E. Guessand
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
Player Shots Nottingham Forest
M. Gibbs-White
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target16%
C. Wood
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
Igor Jesus
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target11%
N. Williams
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target14%
T. Awoniyi
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target12%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa xG (home)1.27
Nottingham Forest xG (away)1.21
Average Possession
53.53%
Possession
46.76%
Team Comparison Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
84.76%
Pass accuracy
81%
450.05
Passes per match
408.34
-0.13
Goals prevented
-0.01
9.79
Fouls committed
10.89
3
Goalkeeper saves
2.87
1.14
Offsides
1.69
15.42
Tackles per match
16.95
League average xG this season is 1.4 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest prediction analysis
Review Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights