Prediction Analysis: Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain
Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Aston Villa
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
44%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Paris Saint Germain
Away
Prediction Summary
1
42%
X
27%
2
31%
Under 2.5
56%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Aston Villa (Home)
Goals scored / match2.17
Goals conceded / match0.67
Over 2.5 rate50%
BTTS rate33%
Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match0.88
Over 2.5 rate38%
BTTS rate25%
Team Form last 5 matches
Aston Villa
WLWWW
Paris Saint Germain
WWWLW
Goals Comparison rate per team
83%
+0.5
75%
67%
+1.5
50%
50%
+2.5
38%
17%
+3.5
13%
0%
+4.5
0%
33%
BTTS
25%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.
Aston Villa averages 2.17 goals scored at home, while Paris Saint Germain averages 1.75 goals scored away.
Model Strength
56%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
42%
Draw
27%
Away Win
31%
Over 2.5
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
Head-to-Head last 2
Apr 2025
Aston Villa
3 - 2
Paris Saint Germain
Home
Apr 2025
Aston Villa(A)
1 - 3
Paris Saint Germain
Away
In the last 2 meetings, Aston Villa won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Aston Villa — unbeaten run (home)6
Aston Villa — scoring streak (home)3
Paris Saint Germain — winless run (away)0
Paris Saint Germain — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Aston Villa Win (1)42%
Draw (X)27%
Paris Saint Germain Win (2)31%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
83%
+0.5
75%
67%
+1.5
50%
50%
+2.5
38%
17%
+3.5
13%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
17%
-0.5
25%
33%
-1.5
50%
50%
-2.5
62%
83%
-3.5
87%
100%
-4.5
100%
Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Aston Villa — scored (home)2.17
Aston Villa — conceded (home)0.67
Paris Saint Germain — scored (away)1.75
Paris Saint Germain — conceded (away)0.88
Model expected combined goals2.45
Both Teams To Score
Yes50%
No50%
Rate per Team
Aston Villa — BTTS matches (home)33%
Paris Saint Germain — BTTS matches (away)25%
Combined (simple average)29%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.586%
Under 4.514%
Over 5.586%
Under 5.514%
Over 6.565%
Under 6.535%
Over 7.559%
Under 7.541%
Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.536%
Under 9.564%
Over 10.515%
Under 10.585%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Aston Villa (home)
Corners for3.5
Corners against4.7
Paris Saint Germain (away)
Corners for4.5
Corners against4.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Aston Villa
8
4
4
10
10
Paris Saint Germain
10
10
4
8
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Aston Villa (home)
For1.6
Paris Saint Germain (away)
For1.4
Shots per Game
Aston Villa — total shots (home)13.8
Paris Saint Germain — total shots (away)13.9
Shots on Target
Aston Villa — on target (home)6.3
Paris Saint Germain — on target (away)5.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Aston Villa
Inside the box8.33
Outside the box4.5
Paris Saint Germain
Inside the box12.71
Outside the box6.18
Player Shots Aston Villa
Marco Asensio
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target50%
J. Ramsey
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target10%
M. Rogers
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target17%
Y. Tielemans
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target25%
O. Watkins
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
Player Shots Paris Saint Germain
O. Dembélé
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target87%
+1.5 On Target53%
D. Doué
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target31%
Gonçalo Ramos
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target17%
K. Kvaratskhelia
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target11%
A. Hakimi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target24%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa xG (home)1.56
Paris Saint Germain xG (away)2.13
Average Possession
47.17%
Possession
61.65%
Team Comparison Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain
84.58%
Pass accuracy
88.18%
429
Passes per match
625.88
0.26
Goals prevented
0.19
10.25
Fouls committed
9.12
4
Goalkeeper saves
2.47
1.33
Offsides
1.59
14.92
Tackles per match
19.65
League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain prediction analysis
Review Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights