Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Aston Villa vs West Ham

Aston Villa vs West Ham prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Premier League 2025-01-26 16:30
Aston Villa
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
54%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
West Ham
Away

Prediction Summary

1
51%
X
24%
2
25%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Aston Villa (Home)

Goals scored / match1.79
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate21%
BTTS rate74%

West Ham (Away)

Goals scored / match1.21
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Aston Villa
LWWWL
West Ham
WLWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 89%
63% +1.5 26%
21% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
74% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.

Aston Villa averages 1.79 goals scored at home, while West Ham averages 1.21 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
51%
Draw
24%
Away Win
25%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
56%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Aston Villa 2 - 0 West Ham Home
Dec 2025 Aston Villa(A) 3 - 2 West Ham Home
Jan 2025 Aston Villa 1 - 1 West Ham Draw
Jan 2025 Aston Villa 2 - 1 West Ham Home
Aug 2024 Aston Villa(A) 2 - 1 West Ham Home

In the last 5 meetings, Aston Villa won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Aston Villa — unbeaten run (home)18
Aston Villa — scoring streak (home)15
West Ham — winless run (away)0
West Ham — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Aston Villa Win (1)51%
Draw (X)24%
West Ham Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 89%
63% +1.5 26%
21% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 11%
37% -1.5 74%
79% -2.5 95%
95% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Aston Villa vs West Ham — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Aston Villa — scored (home)1.79
Aston Villa — conceded (home)1.05
West Ham — scored (away)1.21
West Ham — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.86

Both Teams To Score

Yes56%
No44%

Rate per Team

Aston Villa — BTTS matches (home)74%
West Ham — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)68.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.590%
Under 4.510%
Over 5.582%
Under 5.518%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.558%
Under 8.542%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.547%
Under 10.553%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Aston Villa (home)

Corners for7.4
Corners against3.4

West Ham (away)

Corners for3.4
Corners against6.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Aston Villa
12 8 10 10 7
West Ham
9 4 13 15 4

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Aston Villa (home)

For1.7

West Ham (away)

For1.9

Shots per Game

Aston Villa — total shots (home)15.4
West Ham — total shots (away)13.3

Shots on Target

Aston Villa — on target (home)5.6
West Ham — on target (away)3.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Aston Villa

Inside the box8.87
Outside the box3.87

West Ham

Inside the box8.84
Outside the box3.68

Player Shots Aston Villa

Marco Asensio
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target31%
O. Watkins
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target29%
J. McGinn
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target9%
+1.5 On Target6%
J. Durán
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Rogers
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots West Ham

M. Kudus
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target13%
M. Kilman
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target5%
+1.5 On Target3%
J. Bowen
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target76%
+1.5 On Target26%
Emerson
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target16%
+1.5 On Target6%
M. Antonio
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Aston Villa xG (home)1.51
West Ham xG (away)1.26

Average Possession

50.61% Possession 48.63%

Team Comparison Aston Villa vs West Ham

84.34% Pass accuracy 82.16%
434.26 Passes per match 444.29
0.14 Goals prevented -0.18
10.68 Fouls committed 11.66
2.84 Goalkeeper saves 3.47
1.53 Offsides 1.97
16.79 Tackles per match 17.21

League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Aston Villa vs West Ham prediction analysis

Review Aston Villa vs West Ham with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Premier League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Premier League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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