Prediction Analysis: Atalanta vs Cagliari
Atalanta vs Cagliari prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-09-13
16:30
Atalanta
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
41%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Cagliari
Away
Prediction Summary
1
51%
X
27%
2
23%
+2.5 Goals
41%
BTTS
44%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Atalanta (Home)
Goals scored / match1.32
Goals conceded / match0.79
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate42%
Cagliari (Away)
Goals scored / match0.95
Goals conceded / match1.58
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate63%
Team Form last 5 matches
Atalanta
DLWDL
Cagliari
WWLDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
68%
+0.5
63%
42%
+1.5
32%
11%
+2.5
0%
11%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
42%
BTTS
63%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.
Atalanta averages 1.32 goals scored at home, while Cagliari averages 0.95 goals scored away.
Model Strength
59%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
51%
Draw
27%
Away Win
23%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
Atalanta(A)
2 - 3
Cagliari
Away
Dec 2025
Atalanta
2 - 1
Cagliari
Home
Feb 2025
Atalanta
0 - 0
Cagliari
Draw
Dec 2024
Atalanta(A)
1 - 0
Cagliari
Home
Apr 2024
Atalanta(A)
1 - 2
Cagliari
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Atalanta won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Atalanta — unbeaten run (home)0
Atalanta — scoring streak (home)0
Cagliari — winless run (away)0
Cagliari — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Atalanta Win (1)51%
Draw (X)27%
Cagliari Win (2)23%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
68%
+0.5
63%
42%
+1.5
32%
11%
+2.5
0%
11%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
32%
-0.5
37%
58%
-1.5
68%
89%
-2.5
100%
89%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Atalanta vs Cagliari — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Atalanta — scored (home)1.32
Atalanta — conceded (home)0.79
Cagliari — scored (away)0.95
Cagliari — conceded (away)1.58
Model expected combined goals2.32
Both Teams To Score
Yes44%
No56%
Rate per Team
Atalanta — BTTS matches (home)42%
Cagliari — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)52.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Atalanta (home)
Corners for6.8
Corners against3.6
Cagliari (away)
Corners for3.4
Corners against5.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Atalanta
10
8
4
7
6
Cagliari
10
9
12
6
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5
Yellow Cards per Team
Atalanta (home)
For1.3
Cagliari (away)
For2.5
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.573%
Under 19.527%
Over 22.559%
Under 22.541%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.33
Atalanta
Shots Over 9.583%
Shots Over 11.571%
Shots Over 13.556%
Expected shots15.00
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.94
Cagliari
Shots Over 9.554%
Shots Over 11.536%
Shots Over 13.522%
Expected shots10.33
On Target Over 3.543%
On Target Over 4.526%
On Target Over 5.514%
Expected on target3.36
Shots per Game
Atalanta — total shots (home)17.1
Cagliari — total shots (away)11.1
Shots on Target
Atalanta — on target (home)5.1
Cagliari — on target (away)3.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Atalanta
Inside the box9.79
Outside the box5
Cagliari
Inside the box6.71
Outside the box4.21
Player Shots Atalanta
N. Krstović
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target27%
G. Scamacca
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
G. Raspadori
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
A. Lookman
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
C. De Ketelaere
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target10%
Player Shots Cagliari
Zito Luvumbo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Belotti
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
M. Felici
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
S. Esposito
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
G. Borrelli
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target11%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Atalanta xG (home)1.52
Cagliari xG (away)1.01
Average Possession
55.13%
Possession
45.58%
Team Comparison Atalanta vs Cagliari
84.05%
Pass accuracy
80.03%
493.89
Passes per match
394.18
0.26
Goals prevented
-0.02
11.84
Fouls committed
13.79
3.11
Goalkeeper saves
3.21
1.97
Offsides
1.74
15.61
Tackles per match
16.05
League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Atalanta vs Cagliari prediction analysis
Review Atalanta vs Cagliari with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights