What markets are included in the Atalanta vs Chelsea prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Atalanta vs Chelsea prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Atalanta vs Chelsea

Atalanta vs Chelsea prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2025-12-09 20:00

Atalanta

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

79%

Confidence

High

Score

2-1

Chelsea

Away

Prediction Summary

48%

20%

32%

Over 2.5

79%

BTTS Yes

77%

Confidence

High

Market Evidence

Atalanta (Home)

Goals scored / match1.83

Goals conceded / match2

Over 2.5 rate17%

BTTS rate83%

Chelsea (Away)

Goals scored / match1.8

Goals conceded / match2.8

Over 2.5 rate20%

BTTS rate100%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atalanta

LLWLL

Chelsea

LLWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

83% +0.5 100%

67% +1.5 60%

17% +2.5 20%

17% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

83% BTTS 100%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 79%. Model confidence is High.

Atalanta averages 1.83 goals scored at home, while Chelsea averages 1.8 goals scored away.

Model Strength

79%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

48%

Draw

20%

Away Win

32%

Over 2.5

79%

BTTS Yes

77%

Head-to-Head last 1

Dec 2025 Atalanta 2 - 1 Chelsea Home

In the last 1 meetings, Atalanta won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Atalanta — unbeaten run (home)0

Atalanta — scoring streak (home)4

Chelsea — winless run (away)1

Chelsea — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atalanta Win (1)48%

Draw (X)20%

Chelsea Win (2)32%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

83% +0.5 100%

67% +1.5 60%

17% +2.5 20%

17% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

17% -0.5 0%

33% -1.5 40%

83% -2.5 80%

83% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Atalanta vs Chelsea — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atalanta — scored (home)1.83

Atalanta — conceded (home)2

Chelsea — scored (away)1.8

Chelsea — conceded (away)2.8

Model expected combined goals4.22

Both Teams To Score

Yes77%

No23%

Rate per Team

Atalanta — BTTS matches (home)83%

Chelsea — BTTS matches (away)100%

Combined (simple average)91.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.580%

Under 5.520%

Over 6.572%

Under 6.528%

Over 7.545%

Under 7.555%

Over 8.527%

Under 8.573%

Over 9.510%

Under 9.590%

Over 10.50%

Under 10.5100%

Expected total corners (blended average)7.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atalanta (home)

Corners for4.5

Corners against3.2

Chelsea (away)

Corners for3.8

Corners against3.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atalanta

6 5 6 9 9

Chelsea

7 17 5 5 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.572%

Under 1.528%

Over 2.564%

Under 2.536%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Atalanta (home)

For1.3

Chelsea (away)

For1.2

Shots per Game

Atalanta — total shots (home)16.0

Chelsea — total shots (away)11.0

Shots on Target

Atalanta — on target (home)4.7

Chelsea — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atalanta

Inside the box9.58

Outside the box4.25

Chelsea

Inside the box8.7

Outside the box5.2

Player Shots Atalanta

N. Krstović

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target17%

M. Pašalić

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target56%

+1.5 On Target22%

C. De Ketelaere

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target13%

G. Scamacca

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target10%

L. Samardžić

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Chelsea

Estêvão

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target71%

+1.5 On Target14%

A. Garnacho

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target33%

L. Delap

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target20%

João Pedro

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

C. Palmer

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target75%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atalanta xG (home)1.84

Chelsea xG (away)1.65

Average Possession

48.5% Possession 54.6%

Team Comparison Atalanta vs Chelsea

83% Pass accuracy 88.5%

460.75 Passes per match 532.8

0.04 Goals prevented -0.43

10.08 Fouls committed 12.2

3.33 Goalkeeper saves 2.1

2.75 Offsides 2.22

13.33 Tackles per match 15.3

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atalanta vs Chelsea prediction analysis

Review Atalanta vs Chelsea with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights