What markets are included in the Atalanta vs Lecce prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Atalanta vs Lecce prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Atalanta vs Lecce

Atalanta vs Lecce prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-04-27 18:45

Atalanta

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

50%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Lecce

Away

Prediction Summary

57%

23%

20%

O/U 2.5 · No edge

50%

BTTS · No edge

50%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Atalanta (Home)

Goals scored / match1.89

Goals conceded / match1.26

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate68%

Lecce (Away)

Goals scored / match0.74

Goals conceded / match1.42

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atalanta

LWWWD

Lecce

WWDLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 53%

63% +1.5 11%

21% +2.5 11%

11% +3.5 0%

11% +4.5 0%

68% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Medium.

Atalanta averages 1.89 goals scored at home, while Lecce averages 0.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength

57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

57%

Draw

23%

Away Win

20%

Over 2.5

50%

BTTS Yes

50%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Atalanta(A) 3 - 0 Lecce Home

Sep 2025 Atalanta 4 - 1 Lecce Home

Apr 2025 Atalanta 1 - 1 Lecce Draw

Aug 2024 Atalanta(A) 4 - 0 Lecce Home

May 2024 Atalanta(A) 2 - 0 Lecce Home

In the last 5 meetings, Atalanta won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Atalanta — unbeaten run (home)0

Atalanta — scoring streak (home)4

Lecce — winless run (away)0

Lecce — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atalanta Win (1)57%

Draw (X)23%

Lecce Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 53%

63% +1.5 11%

21% +2.5 11%

11% +3.5 0%

11% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 47%

37% -1.5 89%

79% -2.5 89%

89% -3.5 100%

89% -4.5 100%

Atalanta vs Lecce — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atalanta — scored (home)1.89

Atalanta — conceded (home)1.26

Lecce — scored (away)0.74

Lecce — conceded (away)1.42

Model expected combined goals2.69

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%

No50%

Rate per Team

Atalanta — BTTS matches (home)68%

Lecce — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)55%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.589%

Under 5.511%

Over 6.576%

Under 6.524%

Over 7.566%

Under 7.534%

Over 8.553%

Under 8.547%

Over 9.537%

Under 9.563%

Over 10.529%

Under 10.571%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atalanta (home)

Corners for5.7

Corners against2.9

Lecce (away)

Corners for3.5

Corners against6.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atalanta

15 10 15 7 11

Lecce

15 7 9 7 18

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.590%

Under 1.510%

Over 2.563%

Under 2.537%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Atalanta (home)

For1.5

Lecce (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Atalanta — total shots (home)14.8

Lecce — total shots (away)10.8

Shots on Target

Atalanta — on target (home)5.4

Lecce — on target (away)3.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atalanta

Inside the box11.05

Outside the box3.29

Lecce

Inside the box6.68

Outside the box5.26

Player Shots Atalanta

J. Cuadrado

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target9%

+1.5 On Target4%

A. Lookman

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target32%

M. Retegui

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target22%

S. Kolašinac

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target9%

+1.5 On Target4%

N. Zaniolo

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target21%

+1.5 On Target7%

Player Shots Lecce

K. N’Dri

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target9%

+1.5 On Target9%

Tete Morente

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target26%

+1.5 On Target13%

N. Krstović

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target73%

+1.5 On Target24%

P. Dorgu

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target14%

S. Pierotti

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target14%

+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atalanta xG (home)1.75

Lecce xG (away)0.92

Average Possession

55.32% Possession 43.55%

Team Comparison Atalanta vs Lecce

84.53% Pass accuracy 77.63%

506.58 Passes per match 356.13

0.11 Goals prevented 0.18

11.45 Fouls committed 12.24

2.97 Goalkeeper saves 3.39

1.54 Offsides 1.37

14.97 Tackles per match 16.5

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atalanta vs Lecce prediction analysis

Review Atalanta vs Lecce with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights