Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Atalanta vs Pisa

Atalanta vs Pisa prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-08-24 18:45
Atalanta
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Pisa
Away

Prediction Summary

1
61%
X
22%
2
17%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Atalanta (Home)

Goals scored / match1.32
Goals conceded / match0.79
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate42%

Pisa (Away)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match2.37
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atalanta
DLWDL
Pisa
LLLLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

68% +0.5 53%
42% +1.5 37%
11% +2.5 0%
11% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
42% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Medium.

Atalanta averages 1.32 goals scored at home, while Pisa averages 0.89 goals scored away.

Model Strength
61%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
61%
Draw
22%
Away Win
17%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
48%

Head-to-Head last 2

Jan 2026 Atalanta(A) 1 - 1 Pisa Draw
Aug 2025 Atalanta 1 - 1 Pisa Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Atalanta won 0, drew 2 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Atalanta — unbeaten run (home)0
Atalanta — scoring streak (home)0
Pisa — winless run (away)19
Pisa — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atalanta Win (1)61%
Draw (X)22%
Pisa Win (2)17%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

68% +0.5 53%
42% +1.5 37%
11% +2.5 0%
11% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

32% -0.5 47%
58% -1.5 63%
89% -2.5 100%
89% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Atalanta vs Pisa — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atalanta — scored (home)1.32
Atalanta — conceded (home)0.79
Pisa — scored (away)0.89
Pisa — conceded (away)2.37
Model expected combined goals2.68

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%
No52%

Rate per Team

Atalanta — BTTS matches (home)42%
Pisa — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)47.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.584%
Under 6.516%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atalanta (home)

Corners for6.8
Corners against3.6

Pisa (away)

Corners for3.3
Corners against5.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atalanta
10 8 4 7 6
Pisa
11 7 8 7 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Atalanta (home)

For1.3

Pisa (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Atalanta — total shots (home)17.1
Pisa — total shots (away)8.9

Shots on Target

Atalanta — on target (home)5.1
Pisa — on target (away)2.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atalanta

Inside the box9.79
Outside the box5

Pisa

Inside the box7.11
Outside the box2.47

Player Shots Atalanta

N. Krstović
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target27%
G. Scamacca
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
G. Raspadori
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
A. Lookman
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
C. De Ketelaere
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Pisa

S. Moreo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target14%
M'Bala Nzola
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target6%
R. Durosinmi
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target8%
M. Tramoni
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target7%
F. Stojilković
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atalanta xG (home)1.52
Pisa xG (away)1.05

Average Possession

55.13% Possession 40.21%

Team Comparison Atalanta vs Pisa

84.05% Pass accuracy 76.16%
493.89 Passes per match 326.92
0.26 Goals prevented 0.06
11.84 Fouls committed 13.18
3.11 Goalkeeper saves 2.84
1.97 Offsides 1.7
15.61 Tackles per match 16.42

League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atalanta vs Pisa prediction analysis

Review Atalanta vs Pisa with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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