What markets are included in the Atalanta vs Sturm Graz prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Atalanta vs Sturm Graz prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Atalanta vs Sturm Graz

Atalanta vs Sturm Graz prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2025-01-21 17:45

Atalanta

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

41%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Sturm Graz

Away

Prediction Summary

44%

28%

Under 2.5

59%

BTTS No

53%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Atalanta (Home)

Goals scored / match1.6

Goals conceded / match1.2

Over 2.5 rate20%

BTTS rate40%

Sturm Graz (Away)

Goals scored / match0.75

Goals conceded / match2.75

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate50%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atalanta

LLDWL

Sturm Graz

WLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

60% +0.5 50%

40% +1.5 25%

20% +2.5 0%

20% +3.5 0%

20% +4.5 0%

40% BTTS 50%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.

Atalanta averages 1.6 goals scored at home, while Sturm Graz averages 0.75 goals scored away.

Model Strength

59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

44%

Draw

28%

Away Win

28%

Over 2.5

41%

BTTS Yes

47%

Head-to-Head last 3

Jan 2025 Atalanta 5 - 0 Sturm Graz Home

Nov 2023 Atalanta 1 - 0 Sturm Graz Home

Oct 2023 Atalanta(A) 2 - 2 Sturm Graz Draw

In the last 3 meetings, Atalanta won 2, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Atalanta — unbeaten run (home)0

Atalanta — scoring streak (home)3

Sturm Graz — winless run (away)4

Sturm Graz — clean sheets (away, last 4)0 of 4

1X2 Probability model

Atalanta Win (1)44%

Draw (X)28%

Sturm Graz Win (2)28%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

60% +0.5 50%

40% +1.5 25%

20% +2.5 0%

20% +3.5 0%

20% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

40% -0.5 50%

60% -1.5 75%

80% -2.5 100%

80% -3.5 100%

80% -4.5 100%

Atalanta vs Sturm Graz — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atalanta — scored (home)1.6

Atalanta — conceded (home)1.2

Sturm Graz — scored (away)0.75

Sturm Graz — conceded (away)2.75

Model expected combined goals2.33

Both Teams To Score

Yes47%

No53%

Rate per Team

Atalanta — BTTS matches (home)40%

Sturm Graz — BTTS matches (away)50%

Combined (simple average)45%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.5100%

Under 5.50%

Over 6.590%

Under 6.510%

Over 7.568%

Under 7.532%

Over 8.568%

Under 8.532%

Over 9.568%

Under 9.532%

Over 10.568%

Under 10.532%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atalanta (home)

Corners for8.4

Corners against1.8

Sturm Graz (away)

Corners for1.8

Corners against9.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atalanta

7 13 11 6 14

Sturm Graz

14 11 11 13 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.545%

Under 1.555%

Over 2.533%

Under 2.567%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3

Yellow Cards per Team

Atalanta (home)

For1.2

Sturm Graz (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

Atalanta — total shots (home)21.0

Sturm Graz — total shots (away)7.5

Shots on Target

Atalanta — on target (home)7.4

Sturm Graz — on target (away)2.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atalanta

Inside the box12.7

Outside the box4.7

Sturm Graz

Inside the box4.38

Outside the box4

Player Shots Atalanta

A. Lookman

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target86%

+1.5 On Target43%

M. Brescianini

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target17%

+1.5 On Target17%

J. Cuadrado

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target25%

L. Samardžić

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target25%

D. Zappacosta

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target22%

+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Sturm Graz

J. Gazibegović

Shots on Target/Game3

+0.5 On Target20%

+1.5 On Target20%

A. Malic

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target33%

O. Kiteishvili

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target14%

M. Biereth

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target17%

L. Zvonarek

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target17%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atalanta xG (home)2.49

Sturm Graz xG (away)0.84

Average Possession

53.3% Possession 37.38%

Team Comparison Atalanta vs Sturm Graz

85.8% Pass accuracy 77.25%

505.1 Passes per match 333.88

0.49 Goals prevented 0.44

10.3 Fouls committed 13.13

1.6 Goalkeeper saves 3.88

2.5 Offsides 2.25

13.1 Tackles per match 19.38

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atalanta vs Sturm Graz prediction analysis

Review Atalanta vs Sturm Graz with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights