Prediction Analysis: Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo
Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
La Liga
2024-09-22
14:15
Athletic Club
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
41%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Celta Vigo
Away
Prediction Summary
1
42%
X
28%
2
30%
Under 2.5
59%
BTTS No
53%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Athletic Club (Home)
Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match0.68
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate47%
Celta Vigo (Away)
Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match1.89
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate74%
Team Form last 5 matches
Athletic Club
LWWWD
Celta Vigo
WLWWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
79%
+0.5
89%
37%
+1.5
42%
26%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
74%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.
Athletic Club averages 1.68 goals scored at home, while Celta Vigo averages 1.42 goals scored away.
Model Strength
59%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
42%
Draw
28%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Athletic Club
1 - 1
Celta Vigo
Draw
Dec 2025
Athletic Club(A)
0 - 2
Celta Vigo
Away
Jan 2025
Athletic Club(A)
2 - 1
Celta Vigo
Home
Sep 2024
Athletic Club
3 - 1
Celta Vigo
Home
May 2024
Athletic Club(A)
1 - 2
Celta Vigo
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Athletic Club won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Athletic Club — unbeaten run (home)0
Athletic Club — scoring streak (home)0
Celta Vigo — winless run (away)0
Celta Vigo — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Athletic Club Win (1)42%
Draw (X)28%
Celta Vigo Win (2)30%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
79%
+0.5
89%
37%
+1.5
42%
26%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
21%
-0.5
11%
63%
-1.5
58%
74%
-2.5
89%
89%
-3.5
100%
95%
-4.5
100%
Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Athletic Club — scored (home)1.68
Athletic Club — conceded (home)0.68
Celta Vigo — scored (away)1.42
Celta Vigo — conceded (away)1.89
Model expected combined goals2.33
Both Teams To Score
Yes47%
No53%
Rate per Team
Athletic Club — BTTS matches (home)47%
Celta Vigo — BTTS matches (away)74%
Combined (simple average)60.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.555%
Under 7.545%
Over 8.537%
Under 8.563%
Over 9.527%
Under 9.573%
Over 10.521%
Under 10.579%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.30
Per-Team Corners own matches
Athletic Club (home)
Corners for5.3
Corners against3.5
Celta Vigo (away)
Corners for3.4
Corners against4.5
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Athletic Club
10
11
7
8
8
Celta Vigo
10
9
15
11
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Athletic Club (home)
For1.8
Celta Vigo (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Athletic Club — total shots (home)13.5
Celta Vigo — total shots (away)11.4
Shots on Target
Athletic Club — on target (home)4.7
Celta Vigo — on target (away)4.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Athletic Club
Inside the box8.16
Outside the box4.16
Celta Vigo
Inside the box7.76
Outside the box4.11
Player Shots Athletic Club
Ander Herrera
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
De Marcos
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target4%
+1.5 On Target4%
I. Williams
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target20%
Mikel Vesga
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target4%
Nico Williams
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target21%
Player Shots Celta Vigo
T. Douvikas
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target10%
Borja Iglesias
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Bamba
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Iago Aspas
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target23%
Alfon González
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target19%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club xG (home)1.4
Celta Vigo xG (away)1.44
Average Possession
48.45%
Possession
53.71%
Team Comparison Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo
80.39%
Pass accuracy
84.66%
409.08
Passes per match
517.95
0.03
Goals prevented
-0.14
12.68
Fouls committed
12.16
2.24
Goalkeeper saves
2.42
1.79
Offsides
1.86
15.11
Tackles per match
14.68
League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo prediction analysis
Review Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights