Prediction Analysis: Athletic Club vs Manchester United
Athletic Club vs Manchester United prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Athletic Club
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
56%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Manchester United
Away
Prediction Summary
1
55%
X
23%
2
22%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Athletic Club (Home)
Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match0.71
Over 2.5 rate43%
BTTS rate29%
Manchester United (Away)
Goals scored / match1.75
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate25%
BTTS rate63%
Team Form last 5 matches
Athletic Club
LLWDW
Manchester United
LWWWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
86%
+0.5
88%
71%
+1.5
63%
43%
+2.5
25%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
29%
BTTS
63%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 56%. Model confidence is Medium.
Athletic Club averages 2 goals scored at home, while Manchester United averages 1.75 goals scored away.
Model Strength
56%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
55%
Draw
23%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
Head-to-Head last 2
May 2025
Athletic Club(A)
1 - 4
Manchester United
Away
May 2025
Athletic Club
0 - 3
Manchester United
Away
In the last 2 meetings, Athletic Club won 0, drew 0 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Athletic Club — unbeaten run (home)0
Athletic Club — scoring streak (home)0
Manchester United — winless run (away)1
Manchester United — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Athletic Club Win (1)55%
Draw (X)23%
Manchester United Win (2)22%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
86%
+0.5
88%
71%
+1.5
63%
43%
+2.5
25%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
14%
-0.5
12%
29%
-1.5
37%
57%
-2.5
75%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Athletic Club vs Manchester United — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Athletic Club — scored (home)2
Athletic Club — conceded (home)0.71
Manchester United — scored (away)1.75
Manchester United — conceded (away)1.13
Model expected combined goals2.92
Both Teams To Score
Yes56%
No44%
Rate per Team
Athletic Club — BTTS matches (home)29%
Manchester United — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)46%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.593%
Under 5.57%
Over 6.587%
Under 6.513%
Over 7.587%
Under 7.513%
Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.527%
Under 9.573%
Over 10.520%
Under 10.580%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Athletic Club (home)
Corners for5.7
Corners against2.9
Manchester United (away)
Corners for5.5
Corners against4.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Athletic Club
11
11
9
9
2
Manchester United
13
10
9
2
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1
Yellow Cards per Team
Athletic Club (home)
For1.7
Manchester United (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Athletic Club — total shots (home)16.3
Manchester United — total shots (away)16.9
Shots on Target
Athletic Club — on target (home)5.6
Manchester United — on target (away)6.4
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Athletic Club
Inside the box10.07
Outside the box4.93
Manchester United
Inside the box12.47
Outside the box5.07
Player Shots Athletic Club
Nico Williams
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
Yuri
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target18%
Oihan Sancet
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target29%
Gorka Guruzeta
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target17%
Álex Berenguer
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Player Shots Manchester United
M. Mount
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target22%
Bruno Fernandes
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target21%
K. Mainoo
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%
R. Højlund
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target20%
A. Garnacho
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target27%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club xG (home)1.44
Manchester United xG (away)2.15
Average Possession
52.57%
Possession
58.33%
Team Comparison Athletic Club vs Manchester United
81.71%
Pass accuracy
85.27%
454.43
Passes per match
539.2
-0.3
Goals prevented
-0.18
14.57
Fouls committed
10.07
2
Goalkeeper saves
2.67
0.79
Offsides
1.57
16.86
Tackles per match
18
League average xG this season is 1.47 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Athletic Club vs Manchester United prediction analysis
Review Athletic Club vs Manchester United with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
UEFA Europa League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights