Prediction Analysis: Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
La Liga
2024-11-24
20:00
Athletic Club
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
22%
Confidence
High
Score
0-0
Real Sociedad
Away
Prediction Summary
1
36%
X
35%
2
30%
Under 2.5
78%
BTTS No
69%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Athletic Club (Home)
Goals scored / match1.68
Goals conceded / match0.68
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate47%
Real Sociedad (Away)
Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate21%
Team Form last 5 matches
Athletic Club
LWWWD
Real Sociedad
LWLLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
79%
+0.5
42%
37%
+1.5
26%
26%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
21%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 22%. Model confidence is High.
Athletic Club averages 1.68 goals scored at home, while Real Sociedad averages 0.79 goals scored away.
Model Strength
78%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
36%
Draw
35%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
22%
BTTS Yes
31%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Athletic Club(A)
0 - 1
Real Sociedad
Away
Feb 2026
Athletic Club
0 - 1
Real Sociedad
Away
Feb 2026
Athletic Club
1 - 1
Real Sociedad
Draw
Nov 2025
Athletic Club(A)
2 - 3
Real Sociedad
Away
May 2025
Athletic Club(A)
0 - 0
Real Sociedad
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Athletic Club won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Athletic Club — unbeaten run (home)0
Athletic Club — scoring streak (home)0
Real Sociedad — winless run (away)4
Real Sociedad — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Athletic Club Win (1)36%
Draw (X)35%
Real Sociedad Win (2)30%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
79%
+0.5
42%
37%
+1.5
26%
26%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
21%
-0.5
58%
63%
-1.5
74%
74%
-2.5
89%
89%
-3.5
100%
95%
-4.5
100%
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Athletic Club — scored (home)1.68
Athletic Club — conceded (home)0.68
Real Sociedad — scored (away)0.79
Real Sociedad — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals1.63
Both Teams To Score
Yes31%
No69%
Rate per Team
Athletic Club — BTTS matches (home)47%
Real Sociedad — BTTS matches (away)21%
Combined (simple average)34%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.584%
Under 6.516%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.540%
Under 10.560%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Athletic Club (home)
Corners for5.3
Corners against3.5
Real Sociedad (away)
Corners for4.6
Corners against5.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Athletic Club
10
11
7
8
8
Real Sociedad
10
6
15
11
15
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.592%
Under 0.58%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4
Yellow Cards per Team
Athletic Club (home)
For1.8
Real Sociedad (away)
For2.4
Shots per Game
Athletic Club — total shots (home)13.5
Real Sociedad — total shots (away)8.4
Shots on Target
Athletic Club — on target (home)4.7
Real Sociedad — on target (away)2.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Athletic Club
Inside the box8.16
Outside the box4.16
Real Sociedad
Inside the box6.76
Outside the box3.47
Player Shots Athletic Club
Ander Herrera
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
De Marcos
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target4%
+1.5 On Target4%
I. Williams
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target20%
Mikel Vesga
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target4%
Nico Williams
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target21%
Player Shots Real Sociedad
A. Zakharyan
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
O. Óskarsson
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target4%
Mikel Oyarzabal
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target9%
Barrenetxea
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target7%
S. Becker
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target9%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Club xG (home)1.4
Real Sociedad xG (away)1.12
Average Possession
48.45%
Possession
54.08%
Team Comparison Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
80.39%
Pass accuracy
81.21%
409.08
Passes per match
446.97
0.03
Goals prevented
-0.05
12.68
Fouls committed
13.18
2.24
Goalkeeper saves
2.55
1.79
Offsides
2.16
15.11
Tackles per match
17.05
League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction analysis
Review Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights