Prediction Analysis: Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Major League Soccer
2026-08-15
23:30
Atlanta United FC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
56%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
New York Red Bulls
Away
Prediction Summary
1
46%
X
25%
2
29%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Atlanta United FC (Home)
Goals scored / match1.71
Goals conceded / match1.71
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate76%
New York Red Bulls (Away)
Goals scored / match0.72
Goals conceded / match1.5
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate50%
Team Form last 5 matches
Atlanta United FC
LDLDL
New York Red Bulls
LLLLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
76%
+0.5
61%
47%
+1.5
11%
29%
+2.5
0%
18%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
76%
BTTS
50%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 56%. Model confidence is Medium.
Atlanta United FC averages 1.71 goals scored at home, while New York Red Bulls averages 0.72 goals scored away.
Model Strength
56%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
46%
Draw
25%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2025
Atlanta United FC(A)
0 - 2
New York Red Bulls
Away
Mar 2025
Atlanta United FC
0 - 0
New York Red Bulls
Draw
Oct 2024
Atlanta United FC
2 - 1
New York Red Bulls
Home
Sep 2024
Atlanta United FC(A)
2 - 2
New York Red Bulls
Draw
Jun 2023
Atlanta United FC(A)
0 - 4
New York Red Bulls
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Atlanta United FC won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Atlanta United FC — unbeaten run (home)2
Atlanta United FC — scoring streak (home)3
New York Red Bulls — winless run (away)2
New York Red Bulls — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Atlanta United FC Win (1)46%
Draw (X)25%
New York Red Bulls Win (2)29%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
76%
+0.5
61%
47%
+1.5
11%
29%
+2.5
0%
18%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
24%
-0.5
39%
53%
-1.5
89%
71%
-2.5
100%
82%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Atlanta United FC — scored (home)1.71
Atlanta United FC — conceded (home)1.71
New York Red Bulls — scored (away)0.72
New York Red Bulls — conceded (away)1.5
Model expected combined goals2.82
Both Teams To Score
Yes56%
No44%
Rate per Team
Atlanta United FC — BTTS matches (home)76%
New York Red Bulls — BTTS matches (away)50%
Combined (simple average)63%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Atlanta United FC (home)
Corners for5.4
Corners against4.8
New York Red Bulls (away)
Corners for4.2
Corners against4.5
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Atlanta United FC
8
13
6
9
10
New York Red Bulls
10
13
5
14
6
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.594%
Under 1.56%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8
Yellow Cards per Team
Atlanta United FC (home)
For1.7
New York Red Bulls (away)
For2.6
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.575%
Under 19.525%
Over 22.560%
Under 22.540%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.08
Atlanta United FC
Shots Over 9.579%
Shots Over 11.564%
Shots Over 13.548%
Expected shots13.69
On Target Over 3.572%
On Target Over 4.555%
On Target Over 5.540%
Expected on target5.07
New York Red Bulls
Shots Over 9.564%
Shots Over 11.545%
Shots Over 13.529%
Expected shots11.38
On Target Over 3.557%
On Target Over 4.539%
On Target Over 5.524%
Expected on target4.09
Shots per Game
Atlanta United FC — total shots (home)12.6
New York Red Bulls — total shots (away)10.3
Shots on Target
Atlanta United FC — on target (home)4.8
New York Red Bulls — on target (away)3.0
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Atlanta United FC
Inside the box7.68
Outside the box3.91
New York Red Bulls
Inside the box7.18
Outside the box4.38
Player Shots Atlanta United FC
E. Latte Lath
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target13%
M. Almirón
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Thiaré
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target7%
E. Mihaj
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target10%
T. Muyumba
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target16%
+1.5 On Target4%
Player Shots New York Red Bulls
C. Harper
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target17%
E. Choupo-Moting
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target36%
D. Gjengaar
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target10%
N. Eile
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target7%
S. Ngoma
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target10%
+1.5 On Target5%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlanta United FC xG (home)1.36
New York Red Bulls xG (away)1.31
Average Possession
50.24%
Possession
51.56%
Team Comparison Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls
85.23%
Pass accuracy
82.46%
478.76
Passes per match
475.41
-0.03
Goals prevented
0.06
10.91
Fouls committed
12.32
3.55
Goalkeeper saves
3.18
1.88
Offsides
2.12
13.37
Tackles per match
16.8
League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls prediction analysis
Review Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights