Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Atlante FC vs Toluca

Atlante FC vs Toluca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Liga MX 2026-08-15 23:00
Atlante FC
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
44%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-1
Toluca
Away

Prediction Summary

1
29%
X
29%
2
42%
Under 2.5
62%
BTTS No
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Atlante FC (Home)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate100%

Toluca (Away)

Goals scored / match1.45
Goals conceded / match0.95
Over 2.5 rate32%
BTTS rate36%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atlante FC
DL
Toluca
LWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 59%
0% +1.5 45%
0% +2.5 32%
0% +3.5 9%
0% +4.5 0%
100% BTTS 36%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Atlante FC averages 1 goals scored at home, while Toluca averages 1.45 goals scored away.

Model Strength
62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
29%
Draw
29%
Away Win
42%
Over 2.5
38%
BTTS Yes
44%

Head-to-Head last 0

No head-to-head historyThese two teams have no finished match on record against each other.

Current Streaks

Atlante FC — unbeaten run (home)1
Atlante FC — scoring streak (home)1
Toluca — winless run (away)0
Toluca — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Atlante FC Win (1)29%
Draw (X)29%
Toluca Win (2)42%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 59%
0% +1.5 45%
0% +2.5 32%
0% +3.5 9%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 41%
100% -1.5 55%
100% -2.5 68%
100% -3.5 91%
100% -4.5 100%

Atlante FC vs Toluca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atlante FC — scored (home)1
Atlante FC — conceded (home)1
Toluca — scored (away)1.45
Toluca — conceded (away)0.95
Model expected combined goals2.2

Both Teams To Score

Yes44%
No56%

Rate per Team

Atlante FC — BTTS matches (home)100%
Toluca — BTTS matches (away)36%
Combined (simple average)68%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atlante FC (home)

Corners for—
Corners against—

Toluca (away)

Corners for5.8
Corners against4.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atlante FC
10
Toluca
9 14 7 10 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.596%
Under 2.54%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Atlante FC (home)

For—

Toluca (away)

For2.3

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.576%
Under 19.524%
Over 22.563%
Under 22.537%
Over 25.550%
Under 25.550%
Expected total shots26.39

Atlante FC

Shots Over 9.574%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.543%
Expected shots13.16
On Target Over 3.564%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.64

Toluca

Shots Over 9.575%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.544%
Expected shots13.23
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.66

Shots per Game

Atlante FC — total shots (home)—
Toluca — total shots (away)15.6

Shots on Target

Atlante FC — on target (home)—
Toluca — on target (away)4.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atlante FC

Inside the box-
Outside the box-

Toluca

Inside the box9.79
Outside the box7.62

Player Shots Atlante FC

Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.

Player Shots Toluca

M. Isaís
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target8%
Paulinho
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target76%
+1.5 On Target41%
J. Díaz
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target19%
N. Castro
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target23%
O. Virgen
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atlante FC xG (home)-
Toluca xG (away)1.77

Average Possession

-% Possession 56.98%

Team Comparison Atlante FC vs Toluca

0% Pass accuracy 84.81%
- Passes per match 473.93
- Goals prevented -0.3
- Fouls committed 13.1
- Goalkeeper saves 2.64
- Offsides 1.98
- Tackles per match 15.91

League average xG this season is 1.32 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atlante FC vs Toluca prediction analysis

Review Atlante FC vs Toluca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Liga MX.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Liga MX
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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