Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova

Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie B 2026-08-15 19:00
Atletico Goianiense
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Atletico Goianiense
Probability
63%
Confidence
High
Score
1-0
Vila Nova
Away

Prediction Summary

1
63%
X
26%
2
12%
Under 2.5
68%
BTTS No
71%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Atletico Goianiense (Home)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match0
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate0%

Vila Nova (Away)

Goals scored / match0.33
Goals conceded / match1.67
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate33%

Team Form last 5 matches

Atletico Goianiense
WDLWD
Vila Nova
WLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

50% +0.5 33%
50% +1.5 0%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
0% BTTS 33%

Model Insight

The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 63%. Model confidence is High.

Atletico Goianiense averages 1 goals scored at home, while Vila Nova averages 0.33 goals scored away.

Model Strength
71%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
63%
Draw
26%
Away Win
12%
Over 2.5
32%
BTTS Yes
29%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Atletico Goianiense 1 - 0 Vila Nova Home
Jun 2025 Atletico Goianiense(A) 0 - 1 Vila Nova Away
Oct 2023 Atletico Goianiense(A) 1 - 2 Vila Nova Away
Jul 2023 Atletico Goianiense 1 - 1 Vila Nova Draw
Oct 2019 Atletico Goianiense(A) 1 - 1 Vila Nova Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Atletico Goianiense won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Atletico Goianiense — unbeaten run (home)2
Atletico Goianiense — scoring streak (home)0
Vila Nova — winless run (away)3
Vila Nova — clean sheets (away, last 3)0 of 3

1X2 Probability model

Atletico Goianiense Win (1)63%
Draw (X)26%
Vila Nova Win (2)12%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

50% +0.5 33%
50% +1.5 0%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

50% -0.5 67%
50% -1.5 100%
100% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Atletico Goianiense — scored (home)1
Atletico Goianiense — conceded (home)0
Vila Nova — scored (away)0.33
Vila Nova — conceded (away)1.67
Model expected combined goals1.98

Both Teams To Score

Yes29%
No71%

Rate per Team

Atletico Goianiense — BTTS matches (home)0%
Vila Nova — BTTS matches (away)33%
Combined (simple average)16.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Atletico Goianiense (home)

Corners for5.5
Corners against3.0

Vila Nova (away)

Corners for2.0
Corners against4.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Atletico Goianiense
10 8 11 9 9
Vila Nova
10 12 1 7 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Atletico Goianiense (home)

For2.0

Vila Nova (away)

For2.3

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.575%
Under 19.525%
Over 22.561%
Under 22.539%
Over 25.546%
Under 25.554%
Expected total shots25.31

Atletico Goianiense

Shots Over 9.586%
Shots Over 11.574%
Shots Over 13.560%
Expected shots15.30
On Target Over 3.569%
On Target Over 4.551%
On Target Over 5.535%
Expected on target4.80

Vila Nova

Shots Over 9.551%
Shots Over 11.533%
Shots Over 13.519%
Expected shots10.01
On Target Over 3.535%
On Target Over 4.519%
On Target Over 5.59%
Expected on target2.99

Shots per Game

Atletico Goianiense — total shots (home)19.5
Vila Nova — total shots (away)7.0

Shots on Target

Atletico Goianiense — on target (home)7.0
Vila Nova — on target (away)1.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Atletico Goianiense

Inside the box9.2
Outside the box4

Vila Nova

Inside the box4.83
Outside the box5.17

Player Shots Atletico Goianiense

Gustavo Coutinho
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
Guilherme Lopes
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
Léo Jacó
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
Marrony
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target25%
Geovany Soares
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target20%

Player Shots Vila Nova

Janderson
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target33%
Dudu Dos Santos
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target0%
Emerson Urso
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target0%
André Luís
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
Marquinhos Gabriel
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico Goianiense xG (home)1.51
Vila Nova xG (away)1.25

Average Possession

51.2% Possession 49.5%

Team Comparison Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova

83.92% Pass accuracy 78.17%
385.8 Passes per match 310.17
-0.04 Goals prevented -0.55
14.2 Fouls committed 12.83
2 Goalkeeper saves 3.33
1.75 Offsides 1.67
12.4 Tackles per match 13.33

League average xG this season is 1.13 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova prediction and preview

Preview Atletico Goianiense vs Vila Nova with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.

1X2 Over/Under 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie B
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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