Prediction Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
La Liga
2025-10-18
19:00
Atletico Madrid
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
55%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-0
Osasuna
Away
Prediction Summary
1
69%
X
19%
2
12%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Atletico Madrid (Home)
Goals scored / match2.05
Goals conceded / match0.89
Over 2.5 rate42%
BTTS rate47%
Osasuna (Away)
Goals scored / match0.68
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate37%
Team Form last 5 matches
Atletico Madrid
LWWLW
Osasuna
LLLLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
89%
+0.5
37%
58%
+1.5
26%
42%
+2.5
5%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
37%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 55%. Model confidence is Medium.
Atletico Madrid averages 2.05 goals scored at home, while Osasuna averages 0.68 goals scored away.
Model Strength
69%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
69%
Draw
19%
Away Win
12%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Yes
46%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Atletico Madrid(A)
2 - 1
Osasuna
Home
Oct 2025
Atletico Madrid
1 - 0
Osasuna
Home
May 2025
Atletico Madrid(A)
0 - 2
Osasuna
Away
Jan 2025
Atletico Madrid
1 - 0
Osasuna
Home
May 2024
Atletico Madrid
1 - 4
Osasuna
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Atletico Madrid won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Atletico Madrid — unbeaten run (home)1
Atletico Madrid — scoring streak (home)1
Osasuna — winless run (away)7
Osasuna — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Atletico Madrid Win (1)69%
Draw (X)19%
Osasuna Win (2)12%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
89%
+0.5
37%
58%
+1.5
26%
42%
+2.5
5%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
11%
-0.5
63%
42%
-1.5
74%
58%
-2.5
95%
89%
-3.5
100%
95%
-4.5
100%
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Atletico Madrid — scored (home)2.05
Atletico Madrid — conceded (home)0.89
Osasuna — scored (away)0.68
Osasuna — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals2.88
Both Teams To Score
Yes46%
No54%
Rate per Team
Atletico Madrid — BTTS matches (home)47%
Osasuna — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)42%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.598%
Under 4.52%
Over 5.595%
Under 5.55%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.566%
Under 8.534%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Atletico Madrid (home)
Corners for7.8
Corners against3.8
Osasuna (away)
Corners for2.9
Corners against5.8
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Atletico Madrid
8
10
12
17
14
Osasuna
10
16
12
11
6
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2
Yellow Cards per Team
Atletico Madrid (home)
For2.0
Osasuna (away)
For2.5
Shots per Game
Atletico Madrid — total shots (home)15.4
Osasuna — total shots (away)8.9
Shots on Target
Atletico Madrid — on target (home)6.3
Osasuna — on target (away)2.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Atletico Madrid
Inside the box9.13
Outside the box3.97
Osasuna
Inside the box8.29
Outside the box3.55
Player Shots Atletico Madrid
A. Sørloth
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
J. Álvarez
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target24%
N. González
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target29%
A. Griezmann
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target15%
G. Simeone
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target3%
Player Shots Osasuna
A. Budimir
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target38%
Víctor Muñoz
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target29%
Raúl García
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target11%
Rubén García
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target3%
Lucas Torró
Shots on Target/Game0.2
+0.5 On Target18%
+1.5 On Target6%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid xG (home)1.55
Osasuna xG (away)1.21
Average Possession
53.32%
Possession
46.84%
Team Comparison Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
84.95%
Pass accuracy
78.97%
505.37
Passes per match
386.37
0.13
Goals prevented
0.07
11.18
Fouls committed
13.47
2.55
Goalkeeper saves
3.3
2.19
Offsides
1.5
17.03
Tackles per match
14.5
League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna prediction analysis
Review Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights