Prediction Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
La Liga
2025-09-24
19:30
Atletico Madrid
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
49%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
Rayo Vallecano
Away
Prediction Summary
1
55%
X
24%
2
21%
Under 2.5
51%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Atletico Madrid (Home)
Goals scored / match2.05
Goals conceded / match0.89
Over 2.5 rate42%
BTTS rate47%
Rayo Vallecano (Away)
Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1.53
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate37%
Team Form last 5 matches
Atletico Madrid
LWWLW
Rayo Vallecano
WWDDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
89%
+0.5
53%
58%
+1.5
26%
42%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
37%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 49%. Model confidence is Low.
Atletico Madrid averages 2.05 goals scored at home, while Rayo Vallecano averages 0.89 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
55%
Draw
24%
Away Win
21%
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Atletico Madrid(A)
0 - 3
Rayo Vallecano
Away
Sep 2025
Atletico Madrid
3 - 2
Rayo Vallecano
Home
Apr 2025
Atletico Madrid
3 - 0
Rayo Vallecano
Home
Sep 2024
Atletico Madrid(A)
1 - 1
Rayo Vallecano
Draw
Jan 2024
Atletico Madrid
2 - 1
Rayo Vallecano
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Atletico Madrid won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Atletico Madrid — unbeaten run (home)1
Atletico Madrid — scoring streak (home)1
Rayo Vallecano — winless run (away)0
Rayo Vallecano — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Atletico Madrid Win (1)55%
Draw (X)24%
Rayo Vallecano Win (2)21%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
89%
+0.5
53%
58%
+1.5
26%
42%
+2.5
11%
11%
+3.5
0%
5%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
11%
-0.5
47%
42%
-1.5
74%
58%
-2.5
89%
89%
-3.5
100%
95%
-4.5
100%
Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Atletico Madrid — scored (home)2.05
Atletico Madrid — conceded (home)0.89
Rayo Vallecano — scored (away)0.89
Rayo Vallecano — conceded (away)1.53
Model expected combined goals2.64
Both Teams To Score
Yes50%
No50%
Rate per Team
Atletico Madrid — BTTS matches (home)47%
Rayo Vallecano — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)42%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.590%
Under 6.510%
Over 7.587%
Under 7.513%
Over 8.574%
Under 8.526%
Over 9.558%
Under 9.542%
Over 10.550%
Under 10.550%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.00
Per-Team Corners own matches
Atletico Madrid (home)
Corners for7.8
Corners against3.8
Rayo Vallecano (away)
Corners for4.7
Corners against5.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Atletico Madrid
8
10
12
17
14
Rayo Vallecano
5
14
6
10
15
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6
Yellow Cards per Team
Atletico Madrid (home)
For2.0
Rayo Vallecano (away)
For3.3
Shots per Game
Atletico Madrid — total shots (home)15.4
Rayo Vallecano — total shots (away)11.5
Shots on Target
Atletico Madrid — on target (home)6.3
Rayo Vallecano — on target (away)3.9
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Atletico Madrid
Inside the box9.13
Outside the box3.97
Rayo Vallecano
Inside the box7.76
Outside the box6.21
Player Shots Atletico Madrid
A. Sørloth
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
J. Álvarez
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target24%
N. González
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target29%
A. Griezmann
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target15%
G. Simeone
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target3%
Player Shots Rayo Vallecano
Jorge de Frutos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target17%
Sergio Camello
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
Álvaro García
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
Ilias Akhomach
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target9%
Isi Palazón
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid xG (home)1.55
Rayo Vallecano xG (away)1.39
Average Possession
53.32%
Possession
53.45%
Team Comparison Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
84.95%
Pass accuracy
81.66%
505.37
Passes per match
417.32
0.13
Goals prevented
0.08
11.18
Fouls committed
13.45
2.55
Goalkeeper saves
2.95
2.19
Offsides
2.14
17.03
Tackles per match
18.18
League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction analysis
Review Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights